SPECULATOR: Avoiding this year's Ketel Marte
Feb 17 2021
We put a ton of effort into unearthing the next late-round "sleeper", but there's an underappreciated part of player evaluation that can be even more important: avoiding landmines, particularly early in drafts.
Ron Shandler's research in the 2020 Baseball Forecaster noted that the early rounds are littered with landmines. His key finding: in the first five rounds of drafts over the last two years, nearly half of our picks have been full-on "busts" (player returned a 4+ round loss vs. his draft round), while another 25% were a mere "loss" (a 1-3 round loss).
One of those landmines entering 2020 was Ketel Marte (2B, ARI). We actually panned Marte as an avoid in last year's version of this column—he came with several landmine-worthy traits...
Almost!
You’re just a few clicks away from accessing this feature and hundreds more throughout the year that have a singular goal in mind: Winning your league. Subscribe to BaseballHQ.com here!
Already a subscriber? Sign in here
More From Speculator
The world-renowned (kind of) #BloomBoards make their way to the Speculator. Three of them to sift through!
Jun 17 2026 3:07am
Jun 17 2026 3:07am
They don't all hit the ground running. We apply the longstanding "10-step path to prospect stardom" to this year's player pool.
Jun 10 2026 3:06am
Jun 10 2026 3:06am
A tour through some in-season QBaB leaderboards, including YTD best/worst scores and risers over the last month.
Jun 3 2026 3:08am
Jun 3 2026 3:08am
After last week's in-season "UP"side column, it's time to strike a more pessimistic tune.
May 27 2026 3:07am
May 27 2026 3:07am
With enough of the season in the rearview, we're ready to speculate with some revised "UP" side projections.
May 20 2026 3:07am
May 20 2026 3:07am
