SPECULATOR: Avoiding this year's Ketel Marte
Feb 17 2021
We put a ton of effort into unearthing the next late-round "sleeper", but there's an underappreciated part of player evaluation that can be even more important: avoiding landmines, particularly early in drafts.
Ron Shandler's research in the 2020 Baseball Forecaster noted that the early rounds are littered with landmines. His key finding: in the first five rounds of drafts over the last two years, nearly half of our picks have been full-on "busts" (player returned a 4+ round loss vs. his draft round), while another 25% were a mere "loss" (a 1-3 round loss).
One of those landmines entering 2020 was Ketel Marte (2B, ARI). We actually panned Marte as an avoid in last year's version of this column—he came with several landmine-worthy traits...
Almost!
You’re just a few clicks away from accessing this feature and hundreds more throughout the year that have a singular goal in mind: Winning your league. Subscribe to BaseballHQ.com here!
Already a subscriber? Sign in here
More From Speculator
Two-plus months into the season, we'll use QBaB to see who's making the best quality of contact, and speculate on their outlook going forward.
Jun 4 2025 3:09am
Jun 4 2025 3:09am
After last week's in-season "UP"side column, it's time to strike a more pessimistic tune.
May 28 2025 3:07am
May 28 2025 3:07am
We'll take a page from the Baseball Forecaster with a new batch of "UP"side projections based on 2025's early returns.
May 21 2025 3:06am
May 21 2025 3:06am
Starters who have had one (just one!) bad start, and what things would look like if we give them a mulligan
May 14 2025 3:10am
May 14 2025 3:10am
An early look at which starting pitchers have switched up their pitch mix the most, and whether or not it's working.
May 7 2025 3:07am
May 7 2025 3:07am
