SPECULATOR: 2021 Recency bias rebounds, hitters
Mar 3 2021
We focus on last year wayyy too much. And a minuscule 60-game season hasn't changed things.
Sure, it's important to glance at 2020 when evaluating 2021 outlooks—it's the most recent data point we have—but doing so in a vacuum can lead to a ton of blind spots. In times like these, we can't repeat this BaseballHQ axiom enough (though we try):
Regression is our game's most powerful force.
Putting stock in a player's most recent performance to guide your decisions—often referred to as recency bias—is a natural tendency. Resist the urge. Our marketplace tends to be littered with recency bias, as last year's breakouts are often fully priced, last year's duds are often discounted, and previous track records are often forgotten.
So this week,...
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