SPECULATOR: 2021 Recency bias rebounds, hitters
Mar 3 2021
We focus on last year wayyy too much. And a minuscule 60-game season hasn't changed things.
Sure, it's important to glance at 2020 when evaluating 2021 outlooks—it's the most recent data point we have—but doing so in a vacuum can lead to a ton of blind spots. In times like these, we can't repeat this BaseballHQ axiom enough (though we try):
Regression is our game's most powerful force.
Putting stock in a player's most recent performance to guide your decisions—often referred to as recency bias—is a natural tendency. Resist the urge. Our marketplace tends to be littered with recency bias, as last year's breakouts are often fully priced, last year's duds are often discounted, and previous track records are often forgotten.
So this week,...
Almost!
You’re just a few clicks away from accessing this feature and hundreds more throughout the year that have a singular goal in mind: Winning your league. Subscribe to BaseballHQ.com here!
Already a subscriber? Sign in here
More From Speculator
An early look at who is changing their pitch mix the most... and whether or not it's working.
May 6 2026 3:06am
May 6 2026 3:06am
With skills so bad, we can only speculate on an underlying injury. We hope we're wrong!
Apr 29 2026 3:05am
Apr 29 2026 3:05am
Our annual "draft skills, not roles" using projected skills and year-to-date playing time.
Apr 22 2026 3:05am
Apr 22 2026 3:05am
With most pitchers 3-4 starts in, we dive into the sub-indicators to see who's rising and falling.
Apr 15 2026 3:06am
Apr 15 2026 3:06am
Using our Quality of Batted Ball (QBaB) metric to make some speculative hitter snap judgments.
Apr 8 2026 3:06am
Apr 8 2026 3:06am
