Early-round landmines, 2026
Feb 25 2026
We've taken a rosy approach to most of the Speculator columns this draft season with "UP:" siders (hitters | pitchers), speculating on more playing time, and speculating on recency bias rebounders.
It's time to flip that switch with a more pessimistic tune this week — dodging those potential duds early in drafts.
Stepping on early-round landmines can quickly wipe out gains made by hitting on a late breakout, so instead of dreaming on what some players' 80th-percentile outcome might look like, we need to consider their 20th-percentile outcome as well.
This week, we'll tour the first few rounds to uncover potential missteps as we make the case against several early picks. Some of this may seem like blasphemy—these are premier players...
Almost!
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