2026 Prognosticating Successes, Part 2

It's that time of year. Pumpkin is now appearing in lattes and beer, folks are digging out their long-sleeved shirts, and football games collide with baseball playoff action. That also means it's time to see how Baseball HQ did in our pre-season predictive player analysis.

Here, we review the good calls - where the Baseball HQ process foretold a spike or dip in performance. Most of these commentaries appeared either on the site in the pre-season or in the 2026 Baseball Forecaster. Each provides a concrete example of how our projection model and the analysis that stems from it continues to put you in a position to win your league.

Pitchers are covered here (stats in most cases are wins/saves and ERA); hitters were covered last week.

Braxton Ashcraft: Debuted in late May and held his own in mixed SP/RP role. Had some help from HR/F gods, but strong sub-indicators (xBB%, SwK), GB% tilt, and 2nd half K-BB% give this some staying power. Needs to hold up over a full workload — didn't reach 75 pitches in an MLB appearance — but this package is flyer-worthy. (Young)
2025:  4 wins, 2.71 ERA, 1.25 WHIP in 69 IP
2026: 14 wins, 3.65 ERA, 1.09 WHIP in 165 IP

Bryan Baker: Started strong in middle relief, but ERA ballooned after July trade to TAM. Inflated HR/F should get much of the blame, as new change-up grip (and higher usage) pushed SwK, K% to new levels; improved BB% came with xBB% support; xERA was far more palatable. If arsenal changes hold, an attractive late target who could thrive if opportunity knocks. (Young)
2025:  3 saves, 4.06 ERA, 1.11 WHIP in 68 IP
2026: 41 saves, 1.44 ERA, 0.91 WHIP in 62 IP

Brayan Bello: Shoulder injury pushed debut to late April, and while he beat last year's "UP: 3.50 ERA", xERA says he needed luck to get there. SwK collapse is a red flag—it did a number on strikeouts—and GB% tilt can only do so much with K-BB% entering danger zone. Heed xERA; it aligns better with history. (Bloomfield)
2025: 11 wins, 3.35 ERA, 1.24 WHIP in 166 IP (4.20 xERA)
2026:  6 wins, 4.33 ERA, 1.37 WHIP in 116 IP

Chase Burns: Started at Single-A and quickly climbed the ladder, making MLB debut in June. Had 39% H% in majors working against him, but SwK and K% were off the charts in eight starts prior to August flexor strain. Did return as RP in September, and assuming health is good come spring... UP: 150 IP, 200 K, 3.00 ERA. (Rudd)
2025:  0 wins, 67 K, 4.57 ERA, 1.32 WHIP in 43 IP
2026: 15 wins, 185 K, 2.86 ERA, 1.17 WHIP in 154 IP

Noah Cameron:  Despite lacking overpowering stuff, delivered solid debut behind diverse arsenal, with five pitches above 15% usage. But success was partly fueled by H% (16% vL) and S%, and xERA agrees some pullback is likely. Late SwK spike provides optimism he'll have some staying power, but for now, use 4.00 ERA as baseline. (Rudd)
2025: 9 wins, 2.99 ERA, 1.10 WHIP in 138 IP
2026: 9 wins, 4.11 ERA, 1.23 WHIP in 177 IP

Cade Cavalli: Two-year recovery from Tommy John surgery delayed things, but was called up in Aug and finished strong. Sub-indicators in majors (xBB%, SwK) suggest he held his own, while trifecta of bad fortune (H%/S%, HR/F) drove gap between 2nd half ERA/xERA. Prospect shine is off, but offers plenty of post-hype appeal. (Young)
2025:  3 wins, 4.25 ERA, 1.48 WHIP in 48 IP
2026: 13 wins, 3.02 ERA, 1.16 WHIP in 169 IP

Dylan Cease: Every-other-year ratio trend bit him again, but at least racked up a bunch of Ks. Inflated H% was the main culprit, as both xERA and xWHIP were in line with recent norms, velocity held firm, and elite SwK says the strikeouts will keep coming in bunches. Control issues persist, but a strong bounce back bet, even if it's not up to other even-year heights. (Young)
2025:  8 wins, 4.55 ERA, 1.33 WHIP in 168 IP
2026: 11 wins, 2.40 ERA, 1.10 WHIP in 169 IP

Didier Fuentes: He's flashed exciting strikeout metrics at each level of the minors (57 IP, 23 K-BB%, 14.9 SwK%). Those results didn't translate in his uber-small MLB sample, however. At just 20 years of age, there's plenty of time for improvement, and he could probably be had for pennies on the dollar if you've got room in your incubator. (Larson)
2025: 0 wins,  0 holds, 13.85 ERA, 2.23 WHIP in 13 IP
2026: 7 wins, 17 holds,  2.45 ERA, 1.10 WHIP in 73 IP

Lucas Giolito: Return from internal brace procedure began late due to hamstring strain, ended early by elbow issue. In between, ERA rebound was at odds with sharp decline in K%, K-BB%, leaving xERA a run higher. Injury-prone, wrong side of 30, AND likely overvalued? Let's call that the Triple Frown. (Kruse)
2025: 10 wins, 3.41 ERA, 1.29 WHIP in 145 IP
2026:  2 wins, 5.16 ERA, 1.85 WHIP in 29 IP

Logan Henderson: He was lights out when called upon to the MLB level. His supporting metrics were fantastic - making it curious why Milwaukee was hesitant to keep him in the rotation. However, Henderson's path to becoming a potential rotation mainstay is akin to Jacob Misiorowski's, provided he expands his repertoire beyond his current fastball/change-up mix. His ceiling isn't as high as Misiorowski's, but he could provide value for fantasy managers as a back-end starter over the next several seasons. (Larson)
2025:  3 wins, 1.78 ERA, 0.99 WHIP in 25 IP 
2026: 11 wins, 2.47 ERA, 0.84 WHIP in 98 IP

Shota Imanaga: Second year in MLB wasn't as smooth, as he missed almost two months with hamstring injury, and ERA shot up. Increased FB% got him into HR trouble, decreased velocity led to drop in K%, SwK. But second half skills (via BPX) were not that far off the previous two seasons, and he's still a WHIP monster. Overall, relatively safe. (Smith)
2025:  9 wins, 3.73 ERA, 0.99 WHIP in 144 IP
2026: 11 wins, 3.77 ERA, 1.10 WHIP in 174 IP

Michael King: Fine start was interrupted by May shoulder inflammation that landed him on the 60-day IL. August return lasted for one game, as left knee inflammation then sidelined him for another month. Subsequently displayed rust in four Sept starts. With health, recent track record says he'll rebound back into positive production. Just don't bet on 2024. (Thompson)
2025:  5 wins, 3.44 ERA, 1.20 WHIP in 73 IP
2026: 12 wins, 3.21 ERA, 1.18 WHIP in 185 IP

Dylan Lee: Scintillating start came undone in July/August. H%/S% regression, uncharacteristic HR bug bit hard; RHBs solved him with more regularity. Sept turnaround (1.92 ERA, 0.46 WHIP) and season-long SwK% excellence reminds us that things can go sideways in small RP samples. History, age, health still point to solid choice in save/hold leagues. (Thompson)
2025: 2 saves, 19 holds, 3.29 ERA, 0.98 WHIP in 68 IP
2026: 0 saves, 31 holds, 3.09 ERA, 0.97 WHIP in 67 IP

Jesús Luzardo: Resumed run of dominant skills after injury-riddled 2024, posting a full season of IP yielding fine results. Strikeout rate rebounded to previous lofty mark, supported by SwK%. H%, S% suggest he was saddled with some measure of uncooperative luck, and expected stats agree. Age, 2nd half skills surge point to...UP: 3.25 ERA, 1.10 WHIP (de Leonardis)
2025: 15 wins, 3.92 ERA, 1.22 WHIP in 183 IP
2026: 14 wins, 2.86 ERA, 1.07 WHIP in 180 IP

Michael McGreevy: As of May 19, only eight qualified starting pitchers have a better ERA than Michael McGreevy in 2026. How’s he doing it? Lots of luck. An extremely fortuitous H%/S% combo has led to a wide ERA/xERA gap. This is a subpar collection of skills, as he struggles to miss bats and even his best asset – limiting free passes – is far from certain to continue at its current clip if he can’t throw more strikes. Look for the 25-year-old’s ERA to soar above 4.00 over the rest of the season. (Pyron)
2026 pre-5/19:  3 wins, 2.10 ERA, 0.88 WHIP in 51 IP 
2026 post-5/19: 4 wins, 4.75 ERA, 1.46 WHIP in 117 IP

Nolan McLean: Former 2-way player — nicknamed Cowboy Ohtani in college - enjoyed stellar debut. K% fueled by dynamite pitch mix. High in-zone whiff% testament to distinctive movement profiles of arsenal. Sinker drives heavy groundball rates that cement exciting foundational skills. A rookie that looks ready. (Blessing)
2025:  5 wins, 2.06 ERA, 1.04 WHIP in 48 IP
2026: 12 wins, 3.16 ERA, 1.17 WHIP in 179 IP

Parker Messick: Another overlooked prospect who carries reason for hope heading into 2026. Messick looked the part of an elite strike-thrower during a seven-start stint with the Guardians in 2025 (71% FpK%, 33% Ball%), and his stuff looked above average (11.5% SwK%). He carries some profit potential at his early 352 ADP. (Nickrand)
2025:  3 wins, 2.72 ERA, 1.31 WHIP in 39 IP
2026: 12 wins, 2.56 ERA, 1.06 WHIP in 186 IP

Max Meyer: After a solid April, he hit a rough patch, sporting a horrid 6.46 ERA and 1.66 WHIP over his next 31 IP before having season-ending left hip surgery. He was plagued by an unfortunate H% and HR/F, as seen in xERA/xWHIP. He spent the offseason adding some weight and working on the shapes of his pitches, including his four-seam fastball and change-up. The 26-year-old has shown flashes, and if he can stay healthy, he could be poised for a breakout season. A 402 ADP makes him an excellent dart throw. (Pyron)
2025: 3 wins, 4.73 ERA, 1.42 WHIP in 64 IP
2026: 9 wins, 2.68 ERA, 1.14 WHIP in 111 IP

Mason Miller: Followed up All-Star debut with season nearly as good, including best K%, K-BB% in MLB, and second-best xERA, SwK. And stellar 2nd half suggests there might be yet another level to unlock. Return to SP role still on table, but we can't assume these skills will carry over. On the other hand, if he sticks in the bullpen...UP: sub-2.00 ERA, 40 Sv (Kruse)
2025: 22 saves, 2.63 ERA, 0.91 WHIP in 61 IP
2026: 38 saves, 1.67 ERA, 0.90 WHIP in 70 IP

Jacob Misiorowski: Another young pitcher with rotation-anchor upside. After an electric run in the middle of his MLB debut (16.9% SwK% in July), his stuff ticked down over the last couple of months (11.1% SwK% in August, 12.3% SwK% in September). Still, there was a lot to like in his debut, namely his ability to dominate lefty bats (27% K-BB% vL). Finding a more consistent strikeout pitch against same-sided hitters (24% K% vR) would help him take another step forward. (Nickrand)
2025:  5 wins, 4.36 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 87 K in 66 IP
2026: 16 wins, 1.80 ERA, 0.80 WHIP, 252 K in 175 IP

Mason Montgomery: Opened year in high-leverage but fell out of favor, shuttled to and from minors in 2nd half. BB%, xBB% worsened as season wore on, though 1st half SwK, BPX show shutdown reliever potential despite rocky results. Return to late innings is possible; better H% fortunes, control rebound provide the path. (Williams)
2025:  1 save, 10 holds, 5.67 ERA in 46 IP
2026: 18 saves, 9 holds, 2.88 ERA in 69 IP

Drew Rasmussen: Can't count on health, with three elbow surgeries in college/pros, but when he pitches, surface stats have been remarkably consistent. Skills have been a little more volatile, but much of that can be chalked up to sample size — if you compare 2022 to 2025, it's a near-exact match. That bolsters confidence in a repeat, as long as you factor in injury risk. (Kruse)
2025: 10 wins, 2.76 ERA, 1.02 WHIP in 150 IP
2026: 16 wins, 2.67 ERA, 0.91 WHIP in 172 IP

Chris Sale: After one-year reprieve, IL days roared back with a vengeance (ribcage; like in 2022). Did return for strong final month, and brittleness is really only way he's showing his age; skills are as elite as ever. Still not for the faint of heart, but if you pay for 20 great starts, you probably break even, and if stars align... UP: 2024 redux. (Olson)
2024: 18 wins, 2.38 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 225 K in 177 IP
2025:  7 wins, 2.58 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 165 K in 125 IP
2026: 14 wins, 2.16 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 200 K in 163 IP

Dennis Santana: Trade opened door to 9th, and he largely got job done, though xERA/xWHIP cast doubt on how long that will last. SwK hints at some ability to boost strikeout output, but we've yet to see that, and H% and S% are due for unfavorable turn. If he starts year in closer role, smart play may to let others bid and focus your attention on the Plan B behind him. (Olson)
2025: 16 saves, 2.18 ERA, 0.87 WHIP in 70 IP
2026:  3 saves, 5.56 ERA, 1.43 WHIP in 57 IP

Cam Schlittler: MLB debut shaky at first (3 PQS-DIS in 5 GS), but by playoffs he was shoveling coal into hype train (14.1 IP, 2 ER, 14/0 K/BB). SwK where it needs to be, thanks to four-seamer and cutter, and xBB% offers hope for fewer walks. Youth may lead to bumps, but if he's Hot Schlit from the jump?... UP: full-season sub-3.00 ERA. (Olson)
2025:  4 wins, 2.96 ERA, 1.22 WHIP in 73 IP
2026: 14 wins, 1.95 ERA, 0.92 WHIP in 194 IP

Cade Smith: Elite setup arm got a chance to close in 2nd half, and boy, did it go well. Bat-missing strength got even stronger, and it was paired with an even sharper control foundation. Dominance vs. LHers is the icing on the cake. Those underpinnings give him the goods to become a top-tier stopper. If opportunity follows suit... UP: 40 Sv (Nickrand)
2025: 16 saves, 2.93 ERA, 1.00 WHIP in 73 IP
2026: 41 saves, 1.95 ERA, 0.96 WHIP in 74 IP

Jeffrey Springs: Man, does it feel good when an oft-injured skilled pitcher FINALLY stays healthy. In his case, prior skill life evaporated with durability spike, so that glee doesn't have staying power. Expected levels of ERA, WHIP confirm downside, especially with SwK nosedive and 90-mph fastball. It's tempting to chase another 2022 from him, but it ain't coming. (Nickrand)
2025: 11 wins, 4.11 ERA, 1.21 WHIP in 171 IP
2026:  4 wins, 6.18 ERA, 1.47 WHIP in 138 IP

Payton Tolle: College arm was 50th overall pick in 2024 MLB draft and climbed three levels in minors during professional debut. Pristine command foundation there (32% Ball%, 17.9% SwK) got him recalled with only *40* innings in high-minors. A few months there could produce this... UP: 3.50 ERA, 1.00 WHIP (Nickrand)
2025: 0 wins, 6.06 ERA, 1.59 WHIP in 16 IP
2026: 9 wins, 3.03 ERA, 1.10 WHIP in 149 IP

Louis Varland: Shift to short-relief went swimmingly, as FB velocity soared and whiffs + groundballs increased exponentially. Newfound ability to avoid blowups confirmed in HR/F decrease, which was mostly backed by expected rate, so it's got staying power. Higher leverage work is next, and with it, just maybe... UP: 30 Sv (Nickrand)
2025:  0 saves, 2.97 ERA, 1.20 WHIP in 72 IP
2026: 35 saves, 1.27 ERA, 1.00 WHIP in 78 IP

Victor Vodnik: After missing time with sore shoulder, grabbed closer role in August and reeled off 8 saves in Aug-Sept. But these aren't closer-worthy skills. Solid GB rate helps, but history of shaky strike zone control works against him, and SwK, xBB% show no hope for better. Incumbent status may net a few saves early, but don't count on him holding role. (Truesdell)
2025: 10 saves, 3.02 ERA in 50 IP
2026:  4 saves, 4.91 ERA in 59 IP

Ryan Walker: On one hand, G/F ratio continues to climb, and 2nd half was better as whiffs ticked up a bit. But missed far fewer bats overall, continuing a troublesome trend. The trade of Ks for grounders didn't completely douse skills, and he did regain closer role late. But this still feels like a crossroads season for him. If SwK rate doesn't rebound... DN: 10 Sv. (Truesdell)
2024: 10 wins, 10 saves, 1.91 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, 12.7% SwK in 80 IP
2025:  5 wins, 17 saves, 4.11 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 9.0% SwK in 61 IP
2026:  0 wins,  3 saves, 6.95 ERA, 1,78 WHIP, 6.6% SwK in 33 IP

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