Suárez aims to tame Angels bats

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Today's Overview/Schedule/Weather: All 30 teams are in action on Sunday, with Detroit at Texas for the lone night game on the schedule. The weather forecast looks good for all games, and there's an abundance of arms worth starting, as nearly half of the slate is rated in the green by our Matchups tool.

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Notable Starts:

Even though Ranger Suárez has been pitching over his skill level (2.15 ERA, 3.46 xERA), his skill level is still strong enough to minimize the risk from regression. He's stumbled a bit with walks in his last two starts (5 BB, 10% BB%), but his 32% Ball% and 80% FpK indicate it's likely just a small sample fluke. And his most consistent strength, a high 49% GB% and 0.6 HR/9, could counter the Angels' biggest strength as an offense: their power, as they rank 4th in MLB in HR.

Bryan Woo has shed the injury-prone label coming into 2025, and in fact leads the AL (along with Framber Valdez) with 14 quality starts. He pumps strikes (32% ball%; 4% BB%; 0.93 WHIP) and his last-5 PQS string of 4-3-4-5-4 showcases his stability. He does have a test with the Astros bats today, and facing off against Hunter Brown keeps Woo's Wins rating in check, but is at home at still comes out at 1.6 overall.

Robbie Ray has had an amazing surface-stats year so far, with 9 wins, 128 K and 2.65/1.08 ERA/WHIP. But the ratio strength especially is a bit wobbly under the hood; he has benefitted from a 27%/81% H%/S% combination. It's not a straight avoid, but Toronto has been on a roll lately, with a 113 wRC+ over the last 30 days. Ray is a bit more of a middle-of-the-pack play today than what his ratios might indicate. 

Kris Bubic's last PQS-5 came on June 1st. It was after that start that he was skipped for extra rest, and in the six starts since then, he's allowed a 4.86 ERA and 1.53 WHIP. A 37% hit rate and 67% strand rate during that stretch suggests there's been a lot of bad luck involved, as does his 23% K% and 15% K-BB%. A start against the Marlins, even on the road, might be exactly what he needs to get back on track, as they own a bottom-ten .645 OPS against LHP, and have been an ineffective offense at home (3.9 RC/G).

Trevor Rogers is due for some regression (1.53 ERA, 0.82 WHIP, 20% H%, 82% S%, 3% HR/F, 3.43 xERA), and the Rays drove him out of the game in the third inning when he faced them on June 18th. On the other hand, three of his last four starts have been PQS-DOM outings, and Tampa tends to scuffle against lefties (.234 BA, .662 OPS). His rating for today has him appropriately in the judgment call zone.

 

Quick Pitches:

• Joe Ryan carries some risk for a start at Coors Field due to his extreme fly ball tendencies (48% FB%) and the fact that he's allowed more balls in play (24% K%) and home runs (1.2 HR/9) in road games this season.
• For the season, Nick Pivetta still looks like a pitcher for whom you should factor in his home/away splits (2.07 ERA, 0.86 WHIP, 25% K-BB% at home; 4.09 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 17% K-BB% on the road), but his last four road starts have actually been quite strong: 3.24 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 28% K%, 23% K-BB%.
• Grant Holmes's 11% BB%, which has ballooned to 13% over his last five starts, is not a good matchup with a Yankees team that leads the league in walks and OPS in July (.853). He might carry more risk than the Matchups tool is suggesting.
• David Peterson could be a good option for a home start (2.11 ERA, 1.16 WHIP at home) against a Reds lineup that struggles against LHP (.221 BA. ,658 OPS).
• If you're worried about Hunter Brown's lousy July (6.35 ERA, 1.35 WHIP over 3 GS), his 3.95 xERA and 17% K-BB%, while clearly a step backward from his first-half work this season, suggest there's been more bad luck (35% H%, 57% S%, 19% HR/F) than bad skill involved.

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