ROTISSERIE: Recency bias and the belief in the law of small numbers
Apr 24 2012
A main theme this year at BaseballHQ.com is to raise awareness of a recency bias often prevalent when we attempt to forecast future performance. In essence, "recency bias" means we use the most recent past to guide our choices. Thoughts and information that come to mind first are quite salient and often seen as most important.
In everyday life, judgments based on recency can be an adaptive and efficient way to make choices. However, such judgments can sometimes lead us astray. This article will examine how recency-based thinking can potentially lead to imprudent early season managerial decisions.
Perceptions of chance and the law of small numbers
In general, people tend to expect a sample drawn from a particular population to be...
Almost!
You’re just a few clicks away from accessing this feature and hundreds more throughout the year that have a singular goal in mind: Winning your league. Subscribe to BaseballHQ.com here!
Already a subscriber? Sign in here
More From Rotisserie
An attempt to identify the best and most MLB-ready of both marginal producers and legit prospects with upside at the SS position.
Dec 9 2025 3:02am
Dec 9 2025 3:02am
Matt Shaw headlines our crop of dynasty building blocks at the hot corner.
Dec 4 2025 3:04am
Dec 4 2025 3:04am
We'll take a look at NL outfielders who could see big value gains over the next few seasons, as well as those that could net sharp dynasty owners huge returns as soon as 2026.
Dec 2 2025 8:00am
Dec 2 2025 8:00am
We kick off our Dynasty Reload series with the AL outfield. There are several interesting prospects and a couple of first-year flops (like Jac Caglianone) poised for a rebound.
FREE
Nov 28 2025 8:02am
FREE
Nov 28 2025 8:02am
We'll dig into the positional ADP discrepancies between rotisserie scoring and bestball formats, tips for constructing more efficient rosters, anticipating price bumps for multi-eligible players, and more
Mar 10 2025 3:02am
Mar 10 2025 3:02am
