AL-LABR 2026: Stars, Scrubs, and BABS

In Roto auctions, I generally try to minimize risk. Just ask the other members of AL-LABR; they can assuredly verify my usual style. So, the Broad Assessment Balance Sheet method (a.k.a BABS; find more here) seems the ideal system for such an approach. Last year at the auction, I gave BABS a whirl, combined with a proposed budget for each position. With a resultant risk budget of $36.75, the team was in the upper half of the acceptable range. But in the end, while the pitching staff met the target goals, hitting fell short, particularly in power and average.

With some early free agent acquisitions, the BHQ team came out of the gate strong and led at the All Star break. Alas, injuries and regression caught up in the second half, and the team faded to 6^th place. 

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Approach for 2026

In preparation for this year, I pondered switching gears and going with a Stars and Scrubs approach. Since that system is star-heavy, I wondered – how would the BABS risk budget look? Cheaper players often have higher risk - could a Stars and Scrubs approach truly minimize risk?

I decided to play with some sample teams in Rotolab, to see how Stars and Scrubs teams looked with minimal risk as a priority. A Spread the Risk team would also be assembled to make a similar comparison.

Keep in mind - this is really a thought experiment. By assigning players to a team independent of other owners, it’s completely ignoring auction dynamics. Also, with an entire player pool available, a very large range of sample teams can be constructed. But the experiment will give a sense of what to expect from a Stars and Scrubs or Spread the Risk approach in an AL-only league where risk is minimized. 

Stars and Scrubs

Having played in LABR for 20 years (and an AL-only home league for over 40 years!), I understand the typical “only” league auction dynamics. I.e., the stars come out early and inevitably go for more than the Rotolab projected value. Of course, that means there are bargains later in the auction – but those tend to be low-value players who don’t accrue a lot of AB/IP or generate significant counting stats. To account for that, in this experiment, I’ve added $2 to each star’s salary. 

I cherry-picked three AL offensive studs and two top starters, and filled in the rest of the team with lower-cost players, trying to maximize stats and minimize risk. Here’s how the BABS sheet in Rotolab looks:

This team has an exceptionally low risk budget of $26.25. The pitching side of the ledger does well, with Pitching Effectiveness and Strikeouts well above target values. Projected stats from Rotolab provide an expected second or third-place finishing in each category (compared to 2025 AL-LABR) outside of saves. Not terribly surprising, with two studs at the top of the rotation.

But hitting comes up a bit short, particularly in Batting Effectiveness. Of course, this could be rectified by choosing end-game hitters with better plate skills, but that would affect the other categories. Here, projected stats are strong in speed, but middle of the pack for power and average. Compared to 2025 AL-LABR, this offense is middle-of-the-pack, at best.

Spread the Risk

Then, I attempted to spend between $8-15 per player, avoiding the studs and duds. No salary was added to any of the Rotolab values. As before, an effort was made to choose players with low risk. 

This team has a very low risk budget of $24.75. As with the previous approach, pitching came out strong, doing well in the targets as well as compared to 2025’s AL-LABR final standings. However, it’s extremely unlikely that I can roster two closers for $22; plus, these good-but-not-great starters are unlikely to go for these salaries.

Offense again comes in below the target value and is nothing special compared to 2025. The OF, in particular, was hard to populate with zero-to-low-risk players; even with more risk, it simply does not produce a lot of stats, finishing low to middle of the pack in all five categories.

Takeaways heading into the auction

The first thought here is that by minimizing risk in this extreme way, the results have suffered. Taking on more risk – and targeting an “acceptable” level of $30-40 – is more likely to produce a competitive team. 

But it also shows that there are  enough low-to-medium risk players in an AL-only league to handle either a Stars and Scrubs or Spread the Risk strategy. While both methods provide a good pitching staff for these cherry-picked teams – at a cost – Stars and Scrubs provides a better offense. 

So, in an effort to change my approach and have some fun, I decided to go with a Stars and Scrubs approach with an eye to risk minimization, but not to an extreme extent.

How it went

I found out very early in the auction that I would have my work cut out for me. Fellow BHQer Andy Andres rostered three of the first five nominated players – Aaron Judge, Bobby Witt, and Julio Rodriguez – for $135. Since Andy generally bids big on the studs, this wasn’t overly surprising. Soon after, though, I was able to roster a few stars for a bit over the projected amount.

The team looks as follows:

The risk budget comes in at the low end of acceptable, just $1.25 away from exceptional. Thanks, Zach Cole – but hey, I needed the stolen bases in the end game! I didn’t pay close attention to risk for my six reserves – Lucas Giolito (if he signs in the AL), Peyton Tolle, Zach Gelof, Leody Taveras, Derek Hill, and Randall Grichuk. 

I was able to meet the target goals in all categories other than Batting Effectiveness, which was still quite close. Rotolab using Baseball HQ projections has this team in second place, behind Jeff from Ask Rotoman. Jeff took a Spread the Risk approach and rarely went over projected values, scooping up bargains in the middle part of the draft. 

I came close to but did not reach the goal of getting to the level of the 2025 second-place totals in the offensive categories.  Looking at the projections for the other teams, it’s middle of the pack. As expected from a Stars and Scrubs approach, there are weaknesses due to end-game, low-cost players. On this team, the OF is weak, hence the shot at some OF reserves. This clearly will be also be a priority for early waiver wire claims. 

Pitching, however, exceeded the 2025 second-place finishes in each category. Not surprising with a staff headed by Tarik Skubal. Each of Chris Bassitt, Jose Soriano, and Luis Severino should provide profit at their salaries. A couple of backup closers that came at low cost could lead to a strong showing in saves.

Takeaways

BABS worked great with a Stars and Scrubs approach in a deep league and looks like it will also work well using a Spread the Risk strategy. Give it a whirl in your only-league and see how it works for you! 

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