(*) STARTERS: BPV leaders, July 2013

Let's take our monthly look back at the starting pitchers who posted the best skills during the previous month.

Reference our setting the stage column for historical stats and skills by month and league.  

Here were the stats and skills posted by starting pitchers in July:

• July 2013 Baselines*
  
  League  ERA   WHIP | Ctl  Dom  HR/9  GB% | H%   S%   hr/f | FBv   SS%  | BPV
  ======  ====  ==== | ===  ===  ====  === | ===  ===  ==== | ====  ==== | ===
  AL      3.95  1.31 | 2.9  6.9   1.1  44% | 33%  71%   11% | 91.4  8.3% |  68
  NL      3.82  1.30 | 2.9  7.2   0.9  47% | 31%  71%   10% | 91.6  9.0% |  77
  ----------------------------------------------------------------------------
  MLB     3.89  1.30 | 2.9  7.1   1.0  45% | 32%  71%   11% | 91.5  8.7% |  73
  *starting pitchers only
  

Let's dig deeper into these aggregate stats to find the SP who posted the best skills in July. Some names might surprise you.

• 100+ BPV, July 2013*
  
  Name                League  Ctl  Dom   HR/9  GB%  H%   S%   hr/f  FBv   SS%    BPV
  ==================  ======  ===  ====  ====  ===  ===  ===  ====  ====  =====  ===
  Harvey, Matt            NL  1.6  10.3   0.6  50%  31%  77%    9%  96.6  15.4%  170
  Lincecum, Tim           NL  2.8  12.4   1.7  43%  29%  66%   23%  89.9  13.9%  167
  Sale, Chris             AL  2.1  10.3   0.9  55%  35%  85%   15%  92.9  12.0%  163
  Kershaw, Clayton        NL  0.4   8.2   0.4  44%  21%  81%    5%  92.4  13.6%  160
  Corbin, Patrick         NL  1.8   9.9   0.5  49%  29%  77%    8%  92.5  14.5%  156
  Bailey, Homer           NL  1.5   9.1   0.9  49%  32%  79%   10%  94.8  12.9%  151
  Hernandez, Felix        AL  1.2   8.5   0.5  45%  28%  91%    6%  91.9  10.8%  143
  Fernandez, Jose         NL  2.6  10.3   0.5  47%  23%  79%   10%  95.1  11.8%  141
  Scherzer, Max           AL  1.6   8.9   0.8  43%  28%  77%    8%  93.8  12.8%  138
  Gonzalez, Gio           NL  3.1  11.0   1.6  46%  42%  71%   19%  92.8  11.5%  137
  Price, David            AL  0.2   6.5   1.1  45%  21%  89%   11%  94.1   8.0%  135
  Bumgarner, Madison      NL  1.9   8.7   0.3  51%  22%  81%    4%  92.0  12.2%  135
  Gorzelanny, Tom         NL  2.0   8.6   0.8  55%  32%  72%    9%  91.6  10.6%  135
  Haren, Dan              NL  2.4  10.2   0.8  35%  29%  73%    9%  88.9  11.1%  132
  Redmond, Todd           AL  3.1  11.3   2.2  31%  24%  76%   16%  90.6  11.2%  131
  Iwakuma, Hisashi        AL  1.8   8.3   1.6  52%  33%  77%   17%  89.8  10.1%  130
  Wainwright, Adam        NL  1.5   7.7   0.8  52%  32%  70%   15%  91.5   9.2%  129
  Masterson, Justin       AL  3.5   9.7   0.0  68%  27%  67%    0%  92.1   8.5%  127
  Strasburg, Stephen      NL  3.4  10.7   1.2  47%  29%  64%   16%  95.2  11.6%  126
  Morton, Charlie         NL  1.8   7.7   1.8  58%  33%  75%   33%  93.2   7.5%  125
  Johnson, Josh           AL  2.8   9.8   2.8  45%  35%  55%   31%  93.0   8.3%  124
  Capuano, Chris          NL  0.8   7.1   0.8  40%  33%  65%    7%  89.0  10.7%  122
  Minor, Mike             NL  1.7   8.5   0.4  37%  26%  77%    4%  90.8  11.4%  121
  Jordan, Taylor          NL  0.9   5.8   0.6  58%  34%  73%    9%  91.8   9.9%  117
  Weaver, Jered           AL  1.8   8.1   0.2  40%  28%  87%    3%  86.9  10.7%  117
  Lackey, John            AL  1.7   7.6   1.5  48%  30%  76%   16%  92.2  10.8%  116
  Quintana, Jose          AL  2.3   8.8   0.7  42%  31%  79%    8%  91.4  10.4%  116
  Hellickson, Jeremy      AL  2.2   8.3   1.0  48%  32%  75%   11%  91.2  10.4%  115
  Burnett, A.J.           NL  3.6   9.8   0.0  57%  38%  84%    0%  92.7  10.4%  115
  Moore, Matt             AL  2.1   8.3   0.5  43%  22%  77%    6%  92.7  11.5%  115
  Hamels, Cole            NL  1.5   7.7   0.5  39%  30%  78%    5%  91.2  10.3%  115
  Zimmermann, Jordan      NL  2.1   8.2   2.1  44%  38%  58%   21%  93.6   7.7%  114
  Lester, Jon             AL  2.3   8.8   1.1  38%  33%  81%   11%  92.7  10.2%  114
  Kluber, Corey           AL  2.5   8.5   0.7  50%  27%  74%    9%  93.5   9.2%  113
  Nova, Ivan              AL  2.6   8.4   0.6  51%  25%  82%   10%  93.8  10.6%  110
  Buehrle, Mark           AL  1.3   6.3   0.8  48%  27%  76%    8%  83.4   9.0%  105
  Hudson, Tim             NL  2.2   6.8   0.0  61%  29%  69%    0%  90.0   8.1%  104
  Griffin, A.J.           AL  1.5   7.3   2.7  33%  26%  72%   19%  88.7   8.4%  102
  Kuroda, Hiroki          AL  1.6   6.6   0.0  51%  27%  94%    0%  92.2  10.7%  102
  Lohse, Kyle             NL  1.4   6.5   1.4  42%  24%  88%   12%  89.7   6.6%  101
  Cole, Gerrit            NL  2.3   7.5   0.9  50%  26%  70%   14%  95.5   7.4%  100
  Jackson, Edwin          NL  1.6   5.8   0.3  61%  24%  79%    5%  92.8   7.9%  100
  Latos, Mat              NL  4.1  10.4   0.9  45%  39%  72%   12%  93.6  12.0%  100
  *min 20 IP
  

Here were the biggest BPV changers from June to July:

• BPV, July 2013 vs. June 2013*
  
  Name                League  BPV Jun  BPV Jul  Diff
  ==================  ======  =======  =======  ====
  Moore, Matt             AL     -12      115   +126
  Guthrie, Jeremy         AL     -55       52   +107
  Lester, Jon             AL      20      114   + 94
  Lincecum, Tim           NL      75      167   + 92
  Corbin, Patrick         NL      82      156   + 74
  Peralta, Wily           NL      15       80   + 65
  Quintana, Jose          AL      58      116   + 57
  Archer, Chris           AL      17       73   + 56
  Weaver, Jered           AL      61      117   + 55
  Buehrle, Mark           AL      54      105   + 51
  Chatwood, Tyler         NL      19       70   + 51
  Fernandez, Jose         NL      96      141   + 45
  Dickey, R.A.            NL      51       92   + 41
  Santiago, Hector        AL      25       66   + 41
  Cole, Gerrit            NL      61      100   + 39
  Tillman, Chris          AL      38       75   + 37
  Lynn, Lance             NL      54       91   + 37
  Saunders, Joe           AL      55       92   + 37
  Arroyo, Bronson         NL      48       81   + 33
  Kershaw, Clayton        NL     128      160   + 32
  Ryu, Hyun-Jin           NL      43       74   + 31
  Chacin, Jhoulys         NL      34       65   + 30
  Hudson, Tim             NL      75      104   + 29
  Jackson, Edwin          NL      72      100   + 28
  Milone, Tommy           AL      35       61   + 26
  Bumgarner, Madison      NL     109      135   + 26
  --------------------------------------------------
  Name                League  BPV Jun  BPV Jul  Diff
  ==================  ======  =======  =======  ====
  Lyles, Jordan           AL     108      -19   -126
  Keuchel, Dallas         AL     148       57   - 91
  Diamond, Scott          AL      48      -41   - 89
  Teheran, Julio          NL     163       77   - 86
  Medlen, Kris            NL     145       60   - 85
  Marquis, Jason          NL      17      -67   - 84
  Gonzalez, Miguel        AL      96       13   - 83
  Miller, Shelby          NL     149       68   - 81
  Samardzija, Jeff        NL     107       31   - 76
  Harang, Aaron           NL     103       28   - 75
  Norris, Bud             AL     101       26   - 74
  Williams, Jerome        AL      55      -18   - 73
  Gee, Dillon             NL     100       27   - 73
  Parker, Jarrod          AL      67       -6   - 72
  Danks, John             AL     125       57   - 69
  Correia, Kevin          AL      89       22   - 67
  Kendrick, Kyle          NL     101       36   - 65
  Gallardo, Yovani        NL      82       20   - 62
  Leake, Mike             NL      80       17   - 62
  Volquez, Edinson        NL      95       36   - 59
  Pettitte, Andy          AL     101       43   - 58
  Latos, Mat              NL     154      100   - 55
  Porcello, Rick          AL     118       71   - 47
  Jimenez, Ubaldo         AL      43        1   - 42
  Verlander, Justin       AL      52       10   - 42
  Wood, Travis            NL      71       29   - 42
  Deduno, Samuel          AL      70       29   - 41
  Bedard, Erik            AL      60       19   - 40
  Hernandez, Roberto      AL     108       70   - 38
  Turner, Jacob           NL      64       28   - 35
  Delgado, Randall        NL     111       81   - 30
  Garza, Matt             AL     110       81   - 29
  Hammel, Jason           AL      28        2   - 26
  *min 20 IP each month
  

Let's dig even deeper to look for other July gems.

First, here are the SP who posted the highest average fastball velocities in July:

• 92.5+ mph average fastball velocity, July 2013*
  
  Name                League  FBv
  ==================  ======  ====
  Harvey, Matt            NL  96.6
  Eovaldi, Nathan         NL  96.0
  Cole, Gerrit            NL  95.5
  Strasburg, Stephen      NL  95.2
  Fernandez, Jose         NL  95.1
  Peralta, Wily           NL  95.1
  Cosart, Jarred          NL  95.0
  Archer, Chris           AL  94.9
  Bailey, Homer           NL  94.8
  Miller, Shelby          NL  94.6
  Wheeler, Zack           NL  94.5
  Samardzija, Jeff        NL  94.5
  Price, David            AL  94.1
  Scherzer, Max           AL  93.8
  Nova, Ivan              AL  93.8
  Zimmermann, Jordan      NL  93.6
  Latos, Mat              NL  93.6
  Chatwood, Tyler         NL  93.6
  Kluber, Corey           AL  93.5
  Davis, Wade             AL  93.4
  Morton, Charlie         NL  93.2
  Rogers, Esmil           AL  93.2
  Santana, Ervin          AL  93.1
  Holland, Derek          AL  93.1
  Sanchez, Anibal         AL  93.1
  Verlander, Justin       AL  93.1
  Johnson, Josh           AL  93.0
  Liriano, Francisco      NL  93.0
  Perez, Martin           AL  93.0
  Norris, Bud             AL  93.0
  Sale, Chris             AL  92.9
  Gonzalez, Gio           NL  92.8
  Jackson, Edwin          NL  92.8
  Pelfrey, Mike           AL  92.8
  Burnett, A.J.           NL  92.7
  Moore, Matt             AL  92.7
  Lester, Jon             AL  92.7
  Lynn, Lance             NL  92.7
  Kazmir, Scott           AL  92.7
  Volquez, Edinson        NL  92.7
  Garza, Matt             AL  92.6
  Hammel, Jason           AL  92.6
  Corbin, Patrick         NL  92.5
  Alvarez, Henderson      NL  92.5
  *min 20 IP
  

And those whose average fastball velocities changed the most between June and July:

• Average fastball velocity, July 2013 vs. June 2013*
  
  Name                League  FBv Jun  FBv Jul  Diff
  ==================  ======  =======  =======  ====
  Greinke, Zack           NL    90.6     92.4   +1.8
  Davis, Wade             AL    92.0     93.4   +1.4
  Dickey, R.A.            AL    81.1     82.3   +1.2
  Chatwood, Tyler         NL    92.5     93.6   +1.1
  Danks, John             AL    88.4     89.4   +1.0
  Stults, Eric            NL    86.1     87.1   +1.0
  Bailey, Homer           NL    93.8     94.8   +1.0
  Miller, Shelby          NL    93.8     94.6   +0.8
  Kluber, Corey           AL    92.8     93.5   +0.7
  Bumgarner, Madison      NL    91.3     92.0   +0.7
  Bedard, Erik            AL    89.1     89.8   +0.7
  Kuroda, Hiroki          AL    91.5     92.2   +0.7
  Latos, Mat              NL    92.9     93.6   +0.7
  Lohse, Kyle             NL    89.1     89.7   +0.6
  Shields, James          AL    91.8     92.4   +0.6
  Lynn, Lance             NL    92.1     92.7   +0.6
  Hellickson, Jeremy      AL    90.6     91.2   +0.6
  Masterson, Justin       AL    91.5     92.1   +0.6
  Fister, Doug            AL    88.2     88.8   +0.6
  Wainwright, Adam        NL    91.0     91.5   +0.5
  Volquez, Edinson        NL    92.2     92.7   +0.5
  Locke, Jeff             NL    90.4     90.9   +0.5
  Gonzalez, Miguel        AL    91.4     91.9   +0.5
  Scherzer, Max           AL    93.3     93.8   +0.5
  Nolasco, Ricky          NL    90.2     90.7   +0.5
  Fernandez, Jose         NL    94.6     95.1   +0.5
  Tillman, Chris          AL    91.5     92.0   +0.5
  --------------------------------------------------
  Name                League  FBv Jun  FBv Jul  Diff
  ==================  ======  =======  =======  ====
  Gaudin, Chad            NL    91.7     90.0   -1.7
  Parker, Jarrod          AL    92.1     90.9   -1.2
  Nicasio, Juan           NL    92.7     91.7   -1.0
  Hamels, Cole            NL    92.1     91.2   -0.9
  Sale, Chris             AL    93.8     92.9   -0.9
  Westbrook, Jake         NL    89.9     89.1   -0.8
  Cole, Gerrit            NL    96.3     95.5   -0.8
  Buehrle, Mark           AL    84.2     83.4   -0.8
  Zimmermann, Jordan      NL    94.3     93.6   -0.7
  Straily, Dan            AL    90.7     90.0   -0.7
  Turner, Jacob           NL    92.3     91.7   -0.6
  Hernandez, Felix        AL    92.5     91.9   -0.6
  Pettibone, Jonathan     NL    91.6     91.0   -0.6
  Teheran, Julio          NL    91.8     91.3   -0.5
  Porcello, Rick          AL    91.4     90.9   -0.5
  Kennedy, Ian            NL    90.9     90.4   -0.5
  Hefner, Jeremy          NL    91.4     90.9   -0.5
  Colon, Bartolo          AL    90.2     89.7   -0.5
  Hammel, Jason           AL    93.1     92.6   -0.5
  Guthrie, Jeremy         AL    91.8     91.3   -0.5
  Lincecum, Tim           NL    90.4     89.9   -0.5
  Quintana, Jose          AL    91.9     91.4   -0.5
  *min 20 IP each month
  

Now let's look at swinging strike rates posted by SP.

First, those who posted the highest swinging strike rates in July:

• 10.0%+ Swinging Strike rate, July 2013*
  
  Name                League  SS%
  ==================  ======  =====
  Harvey, Matt            NL  15.4%
  Corbin, Patrick         NL  14.5%
  Lincecum, Tim           NL  13.9%
  Kershaw, Clayton        NL  13.6%
  Liriano, Francisco      NL  13.3%
  Bailey, Homer           NL  12.9%
  Scherzer, Max           AL  12.8%
  Nolasco, Ricky          NL  12.7%
  Bumgarner, Madison      NL  12.2%
  Sale, Chris             AL  12.0%
  Latos, Mat              NL  12.0%
  Fernandez, Jose         NL  11.8%
  Straily, Dan            AL  11.7%
  Strasburg, Stephen      NL  11.6%
  Gonzalez, Gio           NL  11.5%
  Moore, Matt             AL  11.5%
  Holland, Derek          AL  11.4%
  Minor, Mike             NL  11.4%
  Tillman, Chris          AL  11.3%
  Redmond, Todd           AL  11.2%
  Greinke, Zack           NL  11.1%
  Haren, Dan              NL  11.1%
  Lackey, John            AL  10.8%
  Norris, Bud             AL  10.8%
  Hernandez, Felix        AL  10.8%
  Peralta, Wily           NL  10.7%
  Capuano, Chris          NL  10.7%
  Weaver, Jered           AL  10.7%
  Kuroda, Hiroki          AL  10.7%
  Sabathia, C.C.          AL  10.6%
  Nova, Ivan              AL  10.6%
  Gorzelanny, Tom         NL  10.6%
  Hellickson, Jeremy      AL  10.4%
  Medlen, Kris            NL  10.4%
  Quintana, Jose          AL  10.4%
  Cingrani, Tony          NL  10.4%
  Burnett, A.J.           NL  10.4%
  Delgado, Randall        NL  10.3%
  Hamels, Cole            NL  10.3%
  Lester, Jon             AL  10.2%
  Iwakuma, Hisashi        AL  10.1%
  Dempster, Ryan          AL  10.1%
  *min 20 IP
  

Next, those whose swinging strike rate changed the most from June to July:

• Swinging Strike rate, July 2013 vs. June 2013*
  
  Name                League  SS% Jun  SS% Jul  Diff
  ==================  ======  =======  =======  =====
  Corbin, Patrick         NL    9.3%     14.5%  +5.2%
  Tillman, Chris          AL    6.9%     11.3%  +4.4%
  Holland, Derek          AL    7.8%     11.4%  +3.6%
  Chatwood, Tyler         NL    4.6%      8.1%  +3.5%
  Quintana, Jose          AL    7.1%     10.4%  +3.3%
  Fernandez, Jose         NL    8.8%     11.8%  +3.0%
  Lincecum, Tim           NL   11.0%     13.9%  +2.9%
  Guthrie, Jeremy         AL    3.8%      6.6%  +2.8%
  Buehrle, Mark           AL    6.2%      9.0%  +2.8%
  Peralta, Wily           NL    8.1%     10.7%  +2.6%
  Dempster, Ryan          AL    7.6%     10.1%  +2.5%
  Gaudin, Chad            NL    7.1%      9.6%  +2.5%
  Lackey, John            AL    8.4%     10.8%  +2.4%
  Hellickson, Jeremy      AL    8.0%     10.4%  +2.4%
  Milone, Tommy           AL    7.0%      9.3%  +2.3%
  Harvey, Matt            NL   13.3%     15.4%  +2.1%
  Kuroda, Hiroki          AL    8.7%     10.7%  +2.0%
  Pettibone, Jonathan     NL    5.0%      7.0%  +2.0%
  Lynn, Lance             NL    7.5%      9.5%  +2.0%
  Bedard, Erik            AL    7.5%      9.4%  +1.9%
  Sabathia, C.C.          AL    8.7%     10.6%  +1.9%
  Gonzalez, Gio           NL    9.6%     11.5%  +1.9%
  Kershaw, Clayton        NL   11.9%     13.6%  +1.7%
  Nolasco, Ricky          NL   11.0%     12.7%  +1.7%
  Straily, Dan            AL   10.0%     11.7%  +1.7%
  Greinke, Zack           NL    9.4%     11.1%  +1.7%
  De La Rosa, Jorge       NL    8.3%      9.8%  +1.5%
  ---------------------------------------------------
  Name                League  SS% Jun  SS% Jul  Diff
  ==================  ======  =======  =======  =====
  Teheran, Julio          NL   14.6%      9.3%  -5.3%
  Williams, Jerome        AL   11.1%      5.9%  -5.2%
  Diamond, Scott          AL    7.6%      3.9%  -3.7%
  Porcello, Rick          AL    8.6%      5.1%  -3.5%
  Marquis, Jason          NL    8.9%      5.8%  -3.1%
  Turner, Jacob           NL   10.4%      7.5%  -2.9%
  Kennedy, Ian            NL    9.7%      6.8%  -2.9%
  Zimmermann, Jordan      NL   10.5%      7.7%  -2.8%
  Wilson, C.J.            AL    9.7%      6.9%  -2.8%
  Hughes, Phil            AL    8.3%      5.7%  -2.6%
  Pettitte, Andy          AL    8.5%      6.2%  -2.3%
  Hamels, Cole            NL   12.6%     10.3%  -2.3%
  Santiago, Hector        AL   10.1%      7.9%  -2.2%
  Wainwright, Adam        NL   11.3%      9.2%  -2.1%
  Kluber, Corey           AL   11.3%      9.2%  -2.1%
  Westbrook, Jake         NL    6.2%      4.1%  -2.1%
  Keuchel, Dallas         AL   10.6%      8.6%  -2.0%
  Correia, Kevin          AL    7.6%      5.6%  -2.0%
  Garza, Matt             AL   10.0%      8.1%  -1.9%
  Hudson, Tim             NL   10.0%      8.1%  -1.9%
  Latos, Mat              NL   13.8%     12.0%  -1.8%
  Wood, Travis            NL    8.3%      6.5%  -1.8%
  Jackson, Edwin          NL    9.7%      7.9%  -1.8%
  Masterson, Justin       AL   10.3%      8.5%  -1.8%
  Johnson, Josh           AL   10.0%      8.3%  -1.7%
  Gallardo, Yovani        NL    7.3%      5.6%  -1.7%
  Lyles, Jordan           AL    6.8%      5.2%  -1.6%
  Lohse, Kyle             NL    8.2%      6.6%  -1.6%
  *min 20 IP each month
  

Let's take a closer look at a bunch of noteworthy guys, with our usual focus on those who may be available in deep leagues.

AMERICAN LEAGUE

Chris Archer (RHP, TAM) flashed the second-highest average fastball velocity (94.9 mph) in July of any AL SP with at least 20 IP that month. With his top prospect upside and 0.73 ERA, 0.65 WHIP line in July, it may be easy to feel comfortable with him already. Just keep in mind that he was the beneficiary of a trifecta of help in July: 16% H%, 91% S%, 2% hr/f. His base skills were league average: 5.4 Dom, 1.7 Ctl, 45% GB%, 73 BPV. He remains a gem in keeper leagues, but bank on inconsistency down the stretch.

A.J. Griffin (RHP, OAK) had a mediocre 4.86 ERA in July, but his base skills were much better than that: 7.3 Dom, 1.5 Ctl, 33% GB%, 102 BPV. He was hurt by a 2.7 HR/9, which was the product of both his high flyball rate as well as an elevated 19% hr/f. There's some stretch-run profit here.

Josh Johnson (RHP, TOR) entered the season as a huge risk due to his declining fastball velocity and chronic shoulder concerns. And his results in July (7.71 ERA, 1.52 WHIP) have put him on the free agent wire in many leagues. But there is some nice profit potential here over the final two months. His base skills in July were excellent: 9.8 Dom, 2.8 Ctl, 45% GB%, 124 BPV. And they came on the heels of the 118 BPV he posted in June. His implosion in July was the result of three unfriendly indicators: 35% H%, 55% S%, 31% hr/f. Regarding his fastball, it's been at 93 mph in consecutive months, meaning this is shaping up to be the first year since 2009 that his fastball isn't in decline. He's a good stretch-run upside play again if you can stomach his occasional explosions.

Corey Kluber (RHP, CLE) continues to post elite skills month after month. His BPV by month so far in 2013: 174, 139, 115, 113. He even added a 50% GB% to the mix in July. With a 3.19 xERA, his 3.77 ERA has more upside than most people will realize.

Bud Norris (RHP, BAL) was viewed as a #4-type starter when his name was being thrown out at the trade deadline, a perception that wasn't helped by the 6.38 ERA and 1.58 WHIP he posted in July. Likewise, his skills dipped from a 101 BPV in June to this mediocre line in July: 7.1 Dom, 4.1 Ctl, 32% GB%, 26 BPV. Before you dump him, keep in mind that he's got the ingredients for a strikeout spike. He had a 93 mph average fastball in July, and his swinging strike rate jumped from a nice 9.5% to an upper-tier 10.8%. Only 10 starting pitchers in the AL had a higher SS% in July than Norris did. If he can find a groundball pitch, he could take a big step forward.

Iván Nova (RHP, NYY) reminded us in July why he entered 2013 as an excellent buy low target: 31 IP, 2.03 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 8.4 Dom, 2.6 Ctl, 51% GB%, 110 BPV. His 93.8 mph average fastball velocity was the fourth-highest in the AL that month. Nova's emergence has been for real.

Todd Redmond (RHP, TOR) came out of nowhere in July to post these excellent stats and skills: 28 IP, 3.81 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 9.5 Dom, 2.9 Ctl, 34% GB%, 106 BPV. He was drafted by PIT in the 39th round of the June 2004 draft. He has a long history in the minors of posting league-average skills, but both his Dom and Ctl have improved since the beginning of 2012. Problem is, he has consistently been a flyball pitcher, a dangerous recipe given his home park and division. Once he's recalled again from Triple-A, speculate on the skills but keep him on a short leash.

Jered Weaver (RHP, LAA) went back to his soft-tossing, elite skill profile in July: 8.1 Dom, 1.8 Ctl, 40% GB%, 117 BPV. While he's one of the few SP who have consistently been able to stave off H%, S%, and hr/f regression over his career, his margin for error keeps getting smaller and smaller. His fastball velocity has dipped to even new lows. His FB velocity trend by season over the last four years: 89.9, 89.1, 87.8, 86.6. He'll have a much harder time inducing soft contact with a mid-80s fastball.

C.J. Wilson (LHP, LAA) has rebounded nicely after a tough April. Improved control has been the key. His Ctl by month: 5.2, 3.5, 3.1, 2.7. He has posted a 90+ BPV in consecutive months, including these skills in July: 8.5 Dom, 2.7 Ctl, 42% GB%, 99 BPV. Our pessimism in April appears to have been premature. Keep using him.

NATIONAL LEAGUE

Homer Bailey (RHP, CIN) has blossomed into a legit ace in 2013. After years of frustrating owners due to his slow starts and hot finishes, Bailey has posted this monthly BPV so far in 2013: 128, 113, 150, 151. Those skills have been driven by consistent dominance. His Dom by month: 9.0, 9.0, 9.0, 9.1. He even gained one mph on his fastball in July, which averaged 94.8 mph that month. And his swinging strike rate increased by 1.4% to a top-tier 12.9%. Don't even think about benching him.

Chris Capuano (LHP, LA) quietly has pitched really well over the last two months. He had a 152 BPV in a small 15 IP sample in June and carried that forward to July: 7.1 Dom, 0.8 Ctl, 40% GB%, 122 BPV. He's a good bet to post a sub-4.00 ERA and low WHIP in the second half.

Tyler Chatwood (RHP, COL) made some nice under-the-surface gains in July even as his surface stats began to regress. Behind his 4.63 ERA and 1.51 WHIP that month was a 1.1 mph increase in his fastball to 93.6 mph, as well as a 3.5% jump in his swinging strike rate. With a solid groundball tilt and 2.3+ Cmd in three of four months so far this season, Chatwood's emergence this season has been mostly for real. At age 23, he'll head into 2014 with some breakout potential.

Gerrit Cole (RHP, PIT) showed flashes in July of his top-of-the-rotation upside: 3.45 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 7.5 Dom, 2.3 Ctl, 50% GB%, 100 BPV. He also had an average fastball velocity of 95.5 mph. He's still not a legit strikeout machine (low 7.4% swinging strike rate), but he is laying the foundation for future growth.

Patrick Corbin (LHP, ARI) is showing no signs of slowing down. He posted the fourth-best skills of any NL SP in July: 9.9 Dom, 1.8 Ctl, 49% GB%, 156 BPV. His Dom spike was supported by a huge 5.2% increase in his swinging strike rate. Just keep in mind that nearly all of his success has come due to one pitch: an unhittable slider. Batters have a .186 Slg against that pitch the near five hundred times he has thrown it. He'll be overvalued on draft day next season, but for now, keep riding him.

Gio González (LHP, WAS) had a horrible 5.34 ERA and 1.64 WHIP in July, primarily due to one awful start. His base skills in July were actually great: 11.0 Dom, 3.1 Ctl, 46% GB%, 137 BPV. He was done in by a 42% H% and 19% hr/f. That hit rate was the highest of any SP in MLB that month. Roster him with confidence.

Dan Haren (RHP, WAS) does not get treated like an ace anymore, primarily due to his shaky durability and dwindling fastball velocity. But his skills in July were reminiscent of his elite days: 10.2 Dom, 2.4 Ctl, 35% GB%, 132 BPV. He should finish strong if he can stay healthy.

Matt Harvey (RHP, NYM) had the best skills of any SP in July: 10.3 Dom, 1.6 Ctl, 50% GB%, 170 BPV. His 96.6 mph average fastball velocity was also the highest of any SP. If you're thinking about dealing an ace for some hitting help down the stretch, don't include Harvey in the discussion.

Edwin Jackson (RHP, CHC) delivered in July on the profit potential we've forecasted out of him over the last six weeks. He posted a 1.83 ERA and 0.87 WHIP in 34 IP during July. The recipe was elite command and the third-highest groundball rate in the NL: 5.8 Dom, 1.6 Ctl, 61% GB%, 100 BPV. He remains a good hold over the final two months.

Taylor Jordan (RHP, WAS) will be shut down after a few more starts, but the high command + GB machine profile he flashed in July makes him a guy to stash in keeper leagues: 5.8 Dom, 0.9 Ctl, 58% GB%, 117 BPV.

Tim Lincecum (RHP, SF) took us back a few years with his dominating skill set in July: 12.4 Dom, 2.8 Ctl, 43% GB%, 167 BPV. Only the skills of Matt Harvey (RHP, NYM) were better that month. Lincecum's 4.50 ERA would have been a lot lower had he not been victimized by an extremely high 23% hr/f. We can no longer count on consistency from him (BPV last 10 months: 82, 36, 108, 126, 42, 41, 56, 98, 75, 167). But if your rotation needs a push down the stretch, he's got enough left in the tank to provide it.

Kris Medlen (RHP, ATL) reportedly was close to being ousted from the ATL rotation in July. It's a good thing that didn't happen, because a closer look reveals that a 41% H% was the primary driver of his 6.41 ERA and 1.84 WHIP that month. And his high 10.4% swinging strike rate suggests that his 6.1 Dom was lower than it should have been. He's a good bet to rebound in August.

Charlie Morton (RHP, PIT) was victimized by a crazy 33% hr/f in July, the highest hr/f of any SP with 20 IP during that month. Morton's base skills in July featured an elite groundball tilt and excellent command: 7.7 Dom, 1.8 Ctl, 58% GB%, 125 BPV. Don't forget that Morton got a lot of attention two years ago for overhauling his delivery, drawing comparisons to the one used by Roy Halladay. As a groundball machine with a 93 mph average fastball velocity, the comparisons go beyond his delivery. There's still more upside here than most will realize, especially considering that he's two years removed from Tommy John surgery now.

Ricky Nolasco (RHP, LA) had a nifty 3.00 ERA and 1.23 WHIP in July. While his 75 BPV that month did not support such nice surface stats, his fastball increased by 0.5 mph and his swinging strike rate jumped by 1.7% to an elite 12.7% level. Don't sell high.

Wily Peralta (RHP, MIL) enjoyed a big skill spike in July after posting an ugly 15 BPV in June: 7.8 Dom, 3.6 Ctl, 57% GB%, 80 BPV. He also posted a 95.1 mph average fastball velocity and a high 10.7% swinging strike rate. With top-tier raw stuff and a high groundball rate, Peralta has an extremely intriguing profile and makes for a good stretch-run stash if you can stomach his all-too-frequent blowups (26% PQS-DIS%).

Jordan Zimmermann (RHP, WAS) had a horrible showing in July, at least on the surface (7.18 ERA, 1.59 WHIP). But he was one of the unluckiest SP in MLB that month: 38% H%, 58% S%, 21% hr/f. His base skills remained excellent: 8.2 Dom, 2.1 Ctl, 44% GB%, 114 BPV. No reason to jump ship.

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