(*) STARTERS: 2015's young building blocks

Riding emerging young starting pitchers over the final six weeks can help your rotation make a strong push to the finish line.

In addition, rostering them in keeper leagues can put your staff in a good position heading into 2015.

There remains a perception that young starting pitchers are too risky to roster. While young SP often are on shorter leashes than their experienced counterparts, the stats and skills between young and old so far in 2014 have been extremely similar:

  • SP by age group - 2014 YTD
    
    Group    ERA   WHIP | Ctl  Dom  HR/9  GB% | H%   S%   hr/f | FAv   SwK%  FpK% | BPV
    =======  ====  ==== | ===  ===  ====  === | ===  ===  ==== | ====  ====  ==== | ===
    

Younger guys throw harder than older ones, but the velocity itself does not translate into more strikeouts.

The main difference between these two groups can be found in their control. SP that are age 27+ throw more first-pitch strikes and have slightly better control.

Here are the best YTD skills of SP who are age 26 or under:

75+ BPV, age 26 or under

Name                League  Ctl  Dom   HR/9  GB%  H%   S%   hr/f  FAv   SwK%  FpK%  BPV
==================  ======  ===  ====  ====  ===  ===  ===  ====  ====  ====  ====  ===
Kershaw, Clayton        NL  1.3  10.8   0.4  55%  29%  81%    7%  92.8   15%   68%  193
Fernandez, Jose         NL  2.3  12.2   0.7  49%  30%  78%   10%  94.6   14%   65%  185
Sale, Chris             AL  1.7  10.4   0.5  43%  28%  80%    6%  93.1   13%   67%  163
Strasburg, Stephen      NL  2.0  10.7   1.0  46%  35%  74%   14%  94.6   12%   66%  161
Tanaka, Masahiro        AL  1.3   9.4   1.0  46%  30%  82%   14%  91.2   14%   62%  157
Bumgarner, Madison      NL  2.1   8.8   0.7  47%  32%  74%    9%  91.8   11%   65%  127
Wood, Alex              NL  2.4   8.9   0.9  44%  31%  80%   10%  89.8   10%   61%  117
Cobb, Alex              AL  2.7   8.5   0.8  58%  30%  73%   11%  90.9   12%   59%  116
Richards, Garrett       AL  2.8   8.9   0.3  51%  27%  75%    4%  96.4   11%   55%  112
Odorizzi, Jake          AL  3.2  10.1   0.9  32%  33%  72%    8%  90.3   10%   61%  106
Bolsinger, Mike         NL  2.7   8.2   1.3  53%  36%  66%   17%  88.1    9%   67%  105
Stroman, Marcus         AL  2.3   7.7   0.5  50%  27%  76%    6%  93.6    8%   57%  105
Teheran, Julio          NL  2.0   8.0   1.0  36%  28%  76%    9%  91.4   11%   62%  105
Leake, Mike             NL  2.1   7.0   0.9  54%  31%  74%   13%  90.8    7%   60%  103
Wacha, Michael          NL  2.6   8.3   0.5  44%  29%  76%    6%  93.0   11%   64%  101
Keuchel, Dallas         AL  2.2   6.8   0.5  61%  31%  76%   10%  89.5   10%   66%  101
Salazar, Danny          AL  3.3   9.9   1.4  33%  36%  71%   13%  94.3   10%   60%  100
Cole, Gerrit            NL  3.1   8.2   0.8  52%  32%  73%   11%  95.5    9%   64%   95
Whitley, Chase          AL  1.8   6.6   0.9  47%  36%  69%   10%  90.5   11%   64%   94
Quintana, Jose          AL  2.7   7.9   0.4  46%  31%  74%    5%  91.2    8%   66%   94
deGrom, Jacob           NL  3.0   8.4   0.5  43%  31%  78%    7%  93.4   11%   62%   93
Minor, Mike             NL  2.6   8.1   1.6  38%  37%  70%   15%  90.5    7%   64%   92
Erlin, Robbie           NL  2.1   7.3   0.8  39%  33%  66%    8%  89.6    9%   63%   91
Worley, Vance           NL  1.5   5.7   0.7  48%  28%  82%    8%  89.8    4%   62%   89
House, T.J.             AL  2.6   6.6   1.1  61%  35%  75%   18%  91.5    9%   61%   88
Skaggs, Tyler           AL  2.4   6.9   0.7  50%  30%  65%    9%  92.0    8%   64%   87
Wheeler, Zack           NL  3.7   8.7   0.7  53%  31%  75%   10%  94.6   10%   56%   87
Locke, Jeff             NL  1.8   6.0   1.2  49%  30%  72%   14%  90.5    9%   59%   87
Archer, Chris           AL  3.4   8.4   0.4  47%  32%  74%    5%  94.1   10%   58%   86
Eovaldi, Nathan         NL  1.8   6.3   0.6  44%  31%  68%    6%  95.5    8%   64%   85
Gray, Sonny             AL  3.2   7.6   0.5  55%  29%  77%    8%  93.1    8%   56%   83
Ventura, Yordano        AL  3.0   7.7   0.9  48%  31%  76%   11%  96.2   11%   64%   83
Peralta, Wily           NL  2.6   6.6   1.1  55%  29%  78%   15%  95.4    8%   58%   83
Alvarez, Henderson      NL  1.8   5.4   0.5  55%  30%  81%    8%  92.0    7%   62%   82
Hutchison, Drew         AL  2.9   8.2   1.1  35%  31%  66%    9%  92.0   10%   60%   82
Elias, Roenis           AL  3.2   8.2   1.0  44%  29%  69%   11%  91.7   10%   61%   82
Hahn, Jesse             NL  3.9   8.7   0.6  52%  25%  79%    9%  91.1   10%   59%   80
Porcello, Rick          AL  1.8   5.6   0.7  49%  28%  75%    9%  90.5    8%   63%   79
Smyly, Drew             AL  2.8   7.8   1.1  37%  33%  75%   10%  90.1   10%   61%   79
Anderson, Chase         NL  3.0   7.8   1.3  39%  30%  82%   14%  90.7   10%   60%   78
Hendricks, Kyle         NL  1.9   5.6   0.4  51%  26%  85%    6%  88.8    8%   62%   78
Buchanan, David         NL  2.3   6.2   1.1  48%  29%  68%   13%  90.3    8%   57%   76
*min 40 IP

Here are the young SP who have posted the best skills during the last month:

75+ BPV, age 26 or under - last 30 days

Name                League  Ctl  Dom   HR/9  GB%  H%   S%   hr/f  FAv   SwK%  FpK%  BPV
==================  ======  ===  ====  ====  ===  ===  ===  ====  ====  ====  ====  ===
Sale, Chris             AL  2.1  12.3   0.3  41%  34%  82%    3%  94.2   15%   64%  186
Porcello, Rick          AL  0.6   8.1   0.3  54%  29%  80%    5%  90.8   10%   72%  160
Cobb, Alex              AL  2.2   9.5   0.3  57%  31%  85%    4%  90.4   12%   55%  145
Kershaw, Clayton        NL  1.4   8.3   0.2  52%  28%  81%    3%  92.6   13%   62%  143
Strasburg, Stephen      NL  2.6  10.6   1.4  44%  30%  74%   19%  95.0   11%   71%  143
Wood, Alex              NL  2.9  10.6   0.9  47%  36%  87%   10%  89.5   11%   52%  139
Smyly, Drew             AL  2.4  10.0   0.3  40%  35%  75%    3%  90.6   13%   66%  134
Anderson, Brett         NL  1.9   7.7   0.0  65%  29%  87%    0%  90.1   12%   66%  129
Teheran, Julio          NL  2.1   9.4   1.1  38%  35%  68%   10%  91.4   11%   65%  129
Archer, Chris           AL  2.6   9.8   0.3  45%  33%  77%    4%  94.5   12%   64%  129
Elias, Roenis           AL  3.3  10.8   0.4  43%  33%  84%    4%  92.2   15%   57%  125
Bumgarner, Madison      NL  1.3   7.7   0.8  42%  23%  77%    9%  92.5   11%   68%  124
Tillman, Chris          AL  1.2   7.3   0.9  45%  24%  79%   10%  90.9    7%   60%  122
Richards, Garrett       AL  1.7   7.4   0.3  53%  24%  70%    3%  97.0    9%   61%  118
Cahill, Trevor          NL  1.6   7.1   0.3  51%  33%  68%    5%  91.5   11%   60%  115
deGrom, Jacob           NL  1.7   7.4   0.3  47%  27%  79%    4%  93.5   12%   69%  113
Odorizzi, Jake          AL  2.2   9.4   1.3  23%  28%  77%    9%  89.7   10%   63%  111
Miller, Shelby          NL  1.1   6.5   1.9  44%  21%  69%   17%  93.5    7%   60%  108
Nelson, Jimmy           NL  1.7   6.6   0.7  58%  28%  69%   11%  93.4    9%   66%  107
Salazar, Danny          AL  2.5   9.0   0.8  32%  33%  73%    8%  95.0    9%   66%  106
Hutchison, Drew         AL  2.0   8.1   1.7  33%  32%  52%   12%  92.3    9%   68%  102
Leake, Mike             NL  2.6   7.5   0.9  55%  32%  74%   15%  90.4    7%   60%   98
Stroman, Marcus         AL  2.2   6.8   0.0  54%  24%  73%    0%  93.3    7%   56%   96
Keuchel, Dallas         AL  2.4   6.6   0.8  57%  32%  83%   11%  89.8    9%   68%   90
Anderson, Chase         NL  2.6   7.8   0.9  40%  28%  84%    8%  90.7    9%   58%   89
Worley, Vance           AL  1.6   5.7   0.5  52%  29%  89%    7%  89.4    4%   64%   89
Wheeler, Zack           NL  3.4   8.4   1.1  50%  28%  89%   14%  94.7   10%   55%   89
Nuno, Vidal             AL  2.0   6.7   1.3  38%  29%  69%   11%  89.6    8%   69%   82
Eovaldi, Nathan         NL  2.2   6.3   0.7  45%  30%  57%    8%  95.7   10%   63%   77
Hendricks, Kyle         NL  1.5   4.8   0.3  53%  25%  91%    4%  88.9    7%   63%   77 
*min 20 IP

Let's take a closer look at some noteworthy performances by young starting pitchers who might not be on your radar already.

AMERICAN LEAGUE

Chris Archer (RHP, TAM) started the season with a strong 121 BPV in April, but he followed that up with monthly BPVs of 40, 77, and 39 from May to July. Those three months of mediocrity have been wiped away so far in August, when his skills have been even more electric than they were in April: 12.8 Dom, 2.4 Ctl, 41% GB%, 15% SwK%, 185 BPV. He remains a premium arm in keeper leagues and could be in store for a big finish.

Alex Cobb (RHP, TAM) might not be viewed as an ace in most leagues, but it's time to re-think that perception. He has posted a sub-2.50 ERA in three separate months. His elite base skills feature top-tier command and an extreme groundball tilt: 8.6 Dom, 2.6 Ctl, 58% GB%, 121 BPV.

Roenis Elías (LHP, SEA) has been overlooked by many owners this season. His 4.14 ERA is one explanation for it. Digging deeper, his mediocre surface stats largely are the result of the 6.27 ERA and 1.71 WHIP he posted in July. Those marks were driven by an unfriendly 41% H% and 63% S%. He actually had an impressive 11.1 Dom that month, and the strikeouts have kept coming in August: 9.5 Dom, 2.4 Ctl, 52% GB%, 16% SwK%, 137 BPV. In fact, his swinging strike rate over the last month is the highest of any SP in MLB. He's an unheralded young arm worth grabbing for your stretch run and heading into 2015.

T.J. House (LHP, CLE) has a mediocre 4.13 ERA and ugly 1.51 WHIP after 61 IP with CLE. As a result, he's on the waiver wire in most leagues. A closer look suggests now's a good time to buy him low. His 3.53 xERA is the result of his solid command and very high groundball rate: 6.5 Dom, 2.5 Ctl, 61% GB%, 88 BPV. LH batters have absolutely no chance against him: 8.1 Dom, 1.4 Ctl, 67% GB%, 155 BPV. Finding a strikeout pitch against righties (5.7 Dom) would help him emerge.

Drew Hutchison (RHP, TOR) looked like he might be a poor stretch-run target in his first full season back from Tommy John surgery, since he struggled to gain any consistency after his electric 132 BPV in April. While his 6.41 ERA over the last month might make him seem like a guy to avoid, behind that mark are these skills: 8.1 Dom, 2.0 Ctl, 33% GB%, 102 BPV. A crazy 52% S% during that period was the main reason for his 6+ ERA. He'll still carry some durability risk down the stretch, but this remains an exciting young arm with the potential to produce plenty of strikeouts down the stretch.

Rick Porcello (RHP, DET) has outperformed his skills for most of the season. That has changed drastically during the last month. His skills have been fantastic during the last 30 days: 8.1 Dom, 0.6 Ctl, 54% GB%, 160 BPV. His sub-indicators give strong support to his excellent command: 10% SwK%, 72% FpK%.

Danny Salazar (RHP, CLE) has been a non-factor in most leagues this season due to his 4.88 ERA and 1.50 WHIP. In spite of his inconsistency, Salazar has produced really strong skills with CLE: 9.9 Dom, 3.3 Ctl, 33% GB%, 100 BPV. The combination of an inflated 36% H% and high 1.4 HR/9 has fueled his volatility. He's someone who could turn into an ace quickly if he can find a groundball pitch.

Drew Smyly (LHP, TAM) owns some mediocre overall skills (79 BPV), but few young SP have been more electric than Smyly over the last month: 10.0 Dom, 2.4 Ctl, 40% GB%, 134 BPV. His 13% SwK% and 66% FpK% over that time gives support to his strikeout and walk levels.

Marcus Stroman (RHP, TOR) had a disastrous outing during his last start, but his skills before that were excellent: 7.7 Dom, 2.3 Ctl, 50% GB%, 105 BPV. He owns elite command against RH bats: 7.2 Dom, 1.1 Ctl, 53% GB%, 131 BPV. With a 94-mph fastball and three swing-and-miss pitches (21% SwK% on slider, 11% SwK% on changeup, 10% SwK% on curveball), Stroman is a an attractive growth stock.

Chase Whitley (RHP, NYY) has put up some rough surface stats in his 12 starts with NYY so far in 2014 (4.76 ERA, 1.48 WHIP). But his base skills have been very solid: 6.6 Dom, 1.8 Ctl, 47% GB%, 94 BPV. And his 11% SwK% suggests that more strikeouts could be on the horizon. A 36% H% is the main reason for his bad surface stats.

NATIONAL LEAGUE

Mike Bolsinger (RHP, ARI) isn't someone who will get a lot of attention in most leagues as a young arm worth owning. He was an unheralded prospect and is already 26 years old. But he posted some really attractive skills with ARI earlier this season: 8.2 Dom, 2.7 Ctl, 53% GB%, 105 BPV. A 36% H%, 66% S%, and 17% hr/f combined to sabotage his surface stats (5.47 ERA, 1.52 WHIP). He has continued to put up a lot of strikeouts and groundballs since his demotion to Triple-A: 8.4 Dom, 2.9 Ctl, 2.8 G/F. He remains a sneaky stash in deep leagues with more profit potential than it may seem.

Trevor Cahill (RHP, ARI) has shown signs over the last month of salvaging his lost season: 7.1 Dom, 1.6 Ctl, 51% GB%, 115 BPV. Few SP have larger RH/LH splits than Cahill does. He piles up strikeouts and owns an extremely high groundball rate against RH bats: 10.5 Dom, 3.9 Ctl, 62% GB%, 122 BPV. Those attributes crumble against lefties: 4.9 Dom, 3.7 Ctl, 39% GB%, 4 BPV. Few SP have three upper-tier swing-and-miss pitches; Cahill is one: changeup (19% SwK%), curveball (18% SwK%), slider (20% SwK% in limited use). He's still just 26 years old too. Put him back on your radar.

Gerrit Cole (RHP, PIT) has endured shoulder and lat issues in his first full MLB season. When healthy, he has produced strikeouts and groundballs at an intriguing rate: 8.2 Dom, 3.0 Ctl, 52% GB%, 95 BPV. If his shoulder is sound, he remains a budding ace.

Robbie Erlin (LHP, SD) owns a mediocre 4.60 ERA and 1.32 WHIP in 47 IP with SD and is currently sidelined with an elbow issue. That said, his skills with SD were strong: 7.3 Dom, 2.1 Ctl, 39% GB%, 91 BPV. He's no lefty specialist either. He has featured excellent command against RH bats: 7.5 Dom, 1.9 Ctl, 33% GB%, 95 BPV.

Jimmy Nelson (RHP, MIL) has looked like an emerging ace in his seven starts with MIL so far in 2014: 7.3 Dom, 2.4 Ctl, 54% GB%, 100 BPV. His 3.51 xERA suggests that his near-4 ERA could drop down the stretch.

Zack Wheeler (RHP, NYM) has shown flashes this season of becoming an impact SP. He posted a 106 BPV in April and a 110 BPV in July. Spotty control has held him back; he has put up a 4.0+ Ctl in three separate months. With his combination of strikeouts (8.0+ Dom in each month) and groundballs (54%+ GB% in three months), Wheeler has the goods to become a rotation anchor.

Alex Wood (LHP, ATL) quietly has become one of the NL's most effective SP this season. Some owners gave up on him after he temporarily lost his rotation spot in early May. If you held him, you have been rewarded with top-tier stats (2.83 ERA, 1.17 WHIP) and skills: 8.9 Dom, 2.4 Ctl, 44% GB%, 117 BPV. He has been even better during the past month: 10.6 Dom, 2.9 Ctl, 47% GB%, 139 BPV. With a 3.0+ Cmd against both LH and RH bats and two impactful off-speed pitches (14% SwK% on knuckle-curve and 14% SwK% on changeup), Wood remains a very promising young arm.

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