Bounce-back bets, 2025

Identifying profit targets in your draft is a critical skill to determine how successful your draft was at the end of the season.

These starting pitchers had the biggest dropoff in 5x5 value from their average 5x5 value during the period of 2021-2023 (min 100 IP) to 2024:

			2021-2023		2024
Player	Lg	Tm	IP	5x5 $	5x5 $	Δ
Bobby Miller	NL	LA	124	9	(29)	38
Spencer Strider	NL	ATL	320	23	(14)	37
Justin Verlander	NL	SF	243	20	(15)	35
Taijuan Walker	NL	PHI	488	4	(30)	34
Walker Buehler	AL	BOS	272	14	(19)	33
Shohei Ohtani	NL	LA	428	31	-	31
Jordan Montgomery	NL	ARI	402	5	(26)	31
Max Scherzer	AL	TOR	369	21	(8)	29
Clayton Kershaw	NL	LA	379	17	(12)	29
Kodai Sengai	NL	NYM	166	18	(10)	28
Robbie Ray	NL	SF	385	18	(9)	27
Gerrit Cole	AL	NYY	590	27	4	23
Chris Bassitt	AL	TOR	538	16	(6)	22
Bryce Elder	NL	ATL	228	1	(20)	21
J.P. France	AL	HOU	136	1	(19)	20
			2021-2023		2024
Player	Lg	Tm	IP	5x5 $	5x5 $	Δ
Jacob deGrom	AL	TEX	186	10	(10)	20
Triston McKenzie	AL	CLE	327	2	(17)	19
Frankie Montas	NL	NYM	292	9	(10)	19
Eduardo Rodriguez	NL	ARI	400	5	(14)	19
Cristian Javier	AL	HOU	411	8	(10)	18
Cal Quantrill	NL	COL	435	1	(17)	18
Brandon Woodruff	NL	MIL	399	17	-	17
Sandy Alcantara	NL	MIA	618	17	-	17
Marcus Stroman	AL	NYY	453	7	(9)	16
Shane Bieber	AL	CLE	424	9	(6)	15
Merrill Kelly	NL	ARI	535	9	(5)	14
Alek Manoah	AL	TOR	395	5	(9)	14
Shane McClanahan	AL	TB	404	13	-	13
Charlie Morton	AL	BAL	520	10	(3)	13
Jeffrey Springs	AL	ATH	195	3	(9)	12
			2021-2023		2024
Player	Lg	Tm	IP	5x5 $	5x5 $	Δ
Drew Rasmussen	AL	TB	266	5	(7)	12
Kevin Gausman	AL	TOR	551	19	8	11
Kyle Bradish	AL	BAL	285	7	(4)	11
Jon Gray	AL	TEX	433	1	(9)	10
Alex Cobb	AL	DET	393	1	(8)	9
Zac Gallen	NL	ARI	515	16	7	9
Freddy Peralta	NL	MIL	387	18	9	9
Logan Webb	NL	SF	556	18	10	8
Yu Darvish	NL	SD	496	10	3	7
Aaron Civale	NL	MIL	343	2	(4)	6
Lance McCullers Jr.	AL	HOU	209	6	-	6
Kyle Gibson	NL	STL	541	1	(5)	6
Tony Gonsolin	NL	LA	288	5	-	5

Let's take a closer look at the most intriguing SP of this group.
 

AMERICAN LEAGUE

Walker Buehler (RHP, BOS) is a former top pitching prospect who looked the part during a dominant campaign in 2021 (2.47 ERA, 0.97 WHIP in 207 IP) before undergoing Tommy John surgery in 2022. He struggled as he worked to build back arm strength last season (5.38 ERA, 1.55 WHIP, 80 BPX in 75 IP), due in large part to an inability to miss bats (8.2% SwK%). That said, he was a consistent 12.0% SwK% pitcher before the surgery, so his rough 2024 season stands out as an anomaly for now. There's significant profit potential here at his early 254 ADP.

Shane McClanahan (LHP, TAM) recovered in 2024 from his second Tommy John surgery, but his post-injury risk is greater than most given he's had that procedure twice. Still, McClanahan was a legit SP1 in 2022 (2.54 ERA, 0.93 WHIP in 166 IP) and not far from it before going down to injury in 2023 (3.29 ERA, 1.18 WHIP in 115 IP), when his rate of whiffs became even more elite (16.0% SwK%). He's another premium profit play at his 119 ADP if you can stomach his durability concerns.

Triston McKenzie (RHP, CLE) missed the 2023 season due to shoulder and elbow issues and couldn't find his form in 2024 either (5.11 ERA, 1.56 WHIP, 16 BPX in 75 IP). The healthy version in 2021-2022 posted an upper-tier rate of swings-and-misses (13.0% SwK%) and threw strikes at a high clip. At age 27, it's too early to write him off. Just make sure he looks healthy in the spring before investing heavily.

Drew Rasmussen (LHP, TAM) underwent elbow surgery in July 2023, and when he got healthy late in the season, he flashed the elite level of command (35/6 K/BB in 28 IP) that made him a double-digit producer in 2022. His durability risk is higher than most, since that 2022 season was his only 100+ IP campaign in his MLB career. Nonetheless, these are skills well worth speculating on at his 256 ADP.

Max Scherzer (RHP, TOR) is being avoided in many early drafts (488 ADP) given his recent dealings with back, shoulder, and neck issues. That likely means we can't expect anything more than 130 IP, even if he starts the season healthy. But Scherzer has shown the ability to post impactful skills even when he's not completely healthy. He had a solid 118 BPX last year, and prior to that, Scherzer delivered a 145+ BPX in every campaign of his career. Scherzer still can deliver SP2 results in small doses.

Jeffrey Springs (LHP, ATH) returned from Tommy John surgery late in the season but struggled to build back his arm strength. The healthy version produced a 2.46 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, and 157 BPX in 135 IP. He gets whiffs at a top rate and added more groundballs to his profile during his 2022 breakout. Springs is another good bounce-back speculation at his market price (248 ADP).
 

NATIONAL LEAGUE

Sandy Alcantara (RHP, MIA) will be nearly 18 months removed from TJ surgery at the start of the 2025 season. He was a steady ace in 2021-2022 before taking a step backwards in 2023 (4.14 ERA, 115 BPX in 184 IP). Fortunately, Alcantara's foundation of elite command underpinnings and high groundball rate bodes well for a return to that level. He's another premium post-injury play at his 166 ADP.

Aaron Civale (RHP, MIL) looked like an upper-rotation arm in 2023 (3.46 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 122 BPX in 2023) before watching his skills dip below average in 2024 (97 BPX), a season in which his results also were mediocre (4.36 ERA, 1.30 WHIP in 161 IP). Civale's ceiling isn't as high as others listed here, especially since he never has been able to miss bats at a high level. But his control foundation consistently has been really good, so there's legit hope his WHIP can rebound to the 1.12-1.19 level he displayed from 2021 to 2023.

Bobby Miller (RHP, LA) is another high-pedigree SP who took a big step backwards in 2024 (8.52 ERA, 1.77 WHIP in 56 IP). Early shoulder inflammation likely was the driver of his struggles. The year prior, he was a high-skilled arm (137 BPX) who missed bats and kept the ball on the ground. He's one of the best profit plays in the game at his early 437 ADP.

Frankie Montas (RHP, NYM) also was really good in 2021 and 2022. Shoulder surgery wiped out his 2023 season, and while he stayed healthy in 2024, his results weren't impactful (4.84 ERA, 1.37 WHIP in 150 IP). Shoulder surgeries often are difficult to rebound from, and his sharp drop in swinging strikes last season (11.4% SwK%) profiles him as more of a mid-rotation play than anything more. Still, there's value here at his 409 ADP.

Jordan Montgomery (LHP, ARI) had a miserable 2024 season by any measure (6.23 ERA, 1.65 WHIP, 49 BPX in 117 IP). His command foundation did rebound late in the season (13.3% SwK% in 2H); a 35% H% and 63% S% kept those whiffs hidden. Given Montgomery's steadily upper-tier results and skills from 2021 to 2023, he's shaping up to be one of the game's best SP profit targets at his 502 ADP.

Robbie Ray (LHP, SF) made it back from TJ surgery in mid-2024. While the results weren't pretty (4.70 ERA in 30 IP), his stuff made it all the way back in that small sample size (16.9% SwK%). Few starters deliver more volatile surface stats than Ray does, but his trend of alternating good and bad seasons supports his chances to be a mid-3s ERA pitcher again in 2025.

Kodai Senga (RHP, NYM) also can be considered a profit target in 2025 drafts if he can put his 2024 shoulder strain behind him. That injury has lowered his early market value (151 ADP) even though his MLB debut was excellent the year prior (2.98 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 124 BPX in 166 IP).

Brandon Woodruff (RHP, MIL) was one of the most reliable SP2 arms in the majors before shoulder surgery wiped out his 2024 season. We know that shoulder injuries can be tricky, but if he can get his velocity back into the mid-90s, his overall arsenal should allow him to bounce back with mid-rotation value in 2025.

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