(*) RELIEVERS: 2013 Gambles

Among closers, who isn't a gamble lately? The truth is, all it takes for a closer to lose his job is a trade, an injury, a bad stretch of five games (in other words, five innings), or other things beyond a closer's control like a misplay with a runner on, or a seeing-eye jam shot.

The gambles that this column focuses on, though, are not those gambles. These are closers who may be a bit skills-challenged. They either lack a strong Dom, a solid Cmd or have problems with hr/9. They are closers where a better skills option lurks just behind them. (All stats 2013 BaseballHQ.com projections.)

American League

Let's start with 2012 saves leader Jim Johnson (RHP, BAL):

                   IP  Dom  Cmd  hr/9  xERA  GB/FB  BPV
==============     ==  ===  ===  ====  ====  =====  ===
Johnson (BAL)      58  5.6  2.4   0.5  3.57  60/24   76

He is projected to lead the AL again in 2013, but that 5.6 Dom is problematic. Johnson got away with it in 2012 due to the extreme GB/FB split at 60/24. But he'll need more strikeouts to survive a second season without a major bump in the road. Johnson will command dollars at auction, but is a significant risk for failure due to a lack of strikeouts and potential role-threatening slump in 2013.

The Tigers have been hyping Bruce Rondon (RHP, DET) as their 2013 closer. Jim Leyland has not yet made up his mind and Rondon has hurt his cause already with plenty of spring game walks. This isn't a new issue:

                   IP   Dom  Cmd hr/9  xERA  GB/FB  BPV
==============    ===  ==== ==== ====  ====  =====  ===
Rondon (DET)       51   8.1  1.8  0.5  2.84   ---    84
Benoit (DET)       73   9.9  3.5  1.5  3.37  36/46  115
Dotel (DET)        58  10.1  3.6  0.8  3.36  36/46  120
Alburquerque (DET) 51  10.8  1.9  0.2  3.44  62/33   81
Coke (DET)         58   8.1  2.5  0.9  3.95  44/35   79 (L)

Rondon may be a sexy pick, but that 1.8 Cmd shows plenty of problems. But on the other hand, Joaquín Benoit (RHP, DET) and Octavio Dotel (RHP, DET) give up too many  flyballs and the gopheritis that comes with it. It would be easy to select one of them based on Dom and Cmd, but the 46% FB rate is too high to ignore. Dollars will chase all three of these Tigers relievers. The dollars spent might end in disappointment for all three, as saves could be balkanized over the season between them—and perhaps others as well. Even when Leyland finally decides on a closer, it won't be written in stone, especially for a team with World Series aspirations.

Third on the list is Boston closer Joel Hanrahan (RHP, BOS) who comes to the AL East from the relative safety of the NL Central. Hanrahan joins a very strong group of relievers—Andrew Bailey (RHP, BOS), Koji Uehara (RHP, BOS), Junichi Tazawa (RHP, BOS) and Daniel Bard (RHP, BOS) all have shown strong skills, even stronger perhaps than Hanrahan. Let's compare the projections of Hanrahan to Tazawa, for example:

                   IP   Dom  Cmd hr/9  xERA  GB/FB  BPV
==============    ===  ==== ==== ====  ====  =====  ===
Hanrahan (BOS)     58   9.8  2.2  1.1  3.74  43/39   76
Tazawa (BOS)       58   8.8  3.8  0.6  3.11  51/26  125

Hanrahan does have the stronger Dom. But the Cmd is far worse due to a much higher walk rate. The hr/9 is higher, also—too many fly balls. Hanrahan has a 3.74 xERA and 76 BPV compared to Tazawa's 3.11/125. Which of these relievers looks more like a closer to you? That is what makes Hanrahan high risk—his skills are relatively worse than his penmates. One bad week and he could be relegated to set-up. When the dollars are chasing Hanrahan for saves, you will want to consider someone else.

There are plenty of honorable mentions in the AL. Closers like Chris Perez (RHP, CLE), who hangs on to the role despite a 1.1 hr/9 and a stronger skill set in set-up from Vinny Pestano (RHP, BOS), may already be down with injury. Tom Wilhelmsen (RHP, SEA) and his 68 BPV will have to watch out for young guns with electric arms, like Carter Capps (RHP, SEA). Ryan Madson (RHP, LAA) and his iffy elbow can be replaced pretty easily by the Angels stable of arms, if necessary. Glen Perkins (LHP, MIN) has skills, but is a lefty on a team with some solid right-hand help. Grant Balfour (RHP, OAK) and Ryan Cook (RHP, OAK) are an even match set—which one leads the team in saves for 2013 is anyone's guess. Perhaps the most gamblerific of all is Jose Veras (RHP, HOU)—but owners who would chase Veras obviously do not really mind gambling with their auction money anyway.

 

National League

There are plenty of gambles here, too, starting with wildman Carlos Marmol (RHP, CHC):

                  IP   Dom  Cmd hr/9  xERA  GB/FB  BPV
==============   ===  ==== ==== ====  ====  =====  ===
Marmol (CHC)      65  11.9  1.8  0.6  3.85  39/42   52
Fujikawa (CHC)    58  10.1  2.4  1.2  3.22   ---    88

Marmol has the huge Dom as always. But he spit the bit in 2012 with a horrendous walk rate and lost the role temporarily, before returning and doing a credible job late in the year. Now Marmol has better competition in his own pen—Kyuji Fujikawa (RHP, CHC). Fujikawa has strong Dom and a strong Cmd to go with it. The question is whether he can prevent home runs, and a 1.2 hr/9 is skeptical. There will be plenty of dollars spent chasing both of these quasi-closers. Fujikawa may start the year behind Marmol, but he has better skills, leaving owners who chase either one of them taking a sizeable gamble.

Brandon League (RHP, LA) has more skills than he gets credit for, with a solid Dom and strong GB/FB ratio. The risk comes from sharing the pen with Kenley Jansen (RHP, LA):

                  IP   Dom  Cmd hr/9  xERA  GB/FB  BPV
==============   ===  ==== ==== ====  ====  =====  ===
League (LA)       73   6.8  2.1  0.5  3.62  56/22   69
Jansen (LA)       58  13.2  3.5  0.6  2.87  30/49  145

Depending on how depressed League's price is, he might not be a gamble; he might end up being a bargain. But if the expectation is that he will get 30+ saves and the price rises accordingly, then he could easily disappoint. Jansen has the enormous 13.2 Dom. How big is that? Big enough to keep hr/9 under control even with a 49% flyball rate. Jansen can create a return on investment without any saves. But chances are he will get some, at the expense of League and his owners. If you don't discount League accordingly, you are taking a gamble.

The Mets may be correct to stick with flaky Frank Francisco (RHP, NYM) among the options:

                  IP   Dom  Cmd hr/9  xERA  GB/FB  BPV
==============   ===  ==== ==== ====  ====  =====  ===
Francisco (NYM)   65  10.0  2.6  1.0  3.77  36/42   89
Parnell (NYM)     73   8.1  2.5  0.5  3.35  57/24   95

Francisco has pretty solid BPIs, but he gets nicked up every single year and falls out of the closer role, then regains it, loses, regains, and so on. Owners are pretty aware at this point of Francisco's pattern. The risky player here might actually be Bobby Parnell (RHP, NYM). Parnell has shown solid skills—including a very strong 57/24 GB/FB split. Most roto owners want him to get the job. Buyers will be going an extra dollar, perhaps, anticipating that finally, Parnell will take the job and run with it. But not so fast. Terry Collins has only gone to Parnell in short bursts in the past and x- factor Brandon Lyon (RHP, NYM) has now joined the pen. This looks more like another saves mess. So make sure you discount Parnell accordingly, if you are going to gamble here.

Honorable mentions in the NL include the always homerrific Rafael Betancourt (RHP, COL) and his 48% flyball rate, Huston Street (RHP, SD) and his perpetual visits to the disabled list, and the evenly-matched Rafael Soriano and Drew Storen in Washington, where one tiny slump can have the 3.50 xERA/91 BPV Storen replace the 3.51 xERA/99 BPV Soriano for a team with its sights set on the World Series.

Next week, this column looks at endgamers--those listed on BaseballHQ.com at a projected $1 or lower that are worthy of some consideration.

 

For definitions and benchmarks of BaseballHQ.com's most-used terms, see our Glossary Primer.

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