McLain, Scott, Adames, E. Cabrera, L. Garcia

McLain enjoyed a strong rookie season … Despite not making his MLB debut until May 15 and suffering a season-ending oblique strain in late-August, Matt McLain (2B/SS, CIN) batted .290 with 16 HR and 14 SB in 403 PA. How are things under the hood?

Year

PA

HR/SB

BA/xBA

bb%/ct%

GB/LD/FB

h%

PX/xPX

HR/F

QBaB

Brl%

Spd

SB%

2022^

419

13/18

.196/N/A

11/61

N/A

28

134/N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

106

84%

2023*

566

25/20

.288/.262

9/69

39/24/37

37

148/110

17%

CCd

11%

146

65%

^Double-A MLEs
*Includes MLEs
 

Mostly positive:

• While xBA says he isn’t truly a threat to bat .300 at the moment, it’s worth noting that his 10.5% SwK% hints at some ct% upside (75% xct%) that could soften any BA regression.
• The HR eruption wasn’t fully supported by QBaB or xPX, so don't assume the same HR pace in 2024. 
• The skills, including Spd, Statcast measured 90th percentile sprint speed, and SB% history (83% SB% in 2H) suggest there could be 25-30 SB upside at peak.

The two-time first round draft pick (2018 and 2021) showed better plate skills and more power in 2023. He has spent the offseason trying to improve his ability to hit fastballs at the top of the strike zone. Oblique injuries can be tricky and he has already been sidelined for about a week due to oblique soreness early in spring 2024 camp, but if the 24-year-old can stay healthy, he is a solid bet for a 20 HR/20 SB season with potential upside beyond that. The dual eligibility is a nice bonus. 

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Can Scott do it again? … Tanner Scott (LHP, MIA) enjoyed a breakout season in 2023, posting 2.31 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, and 12 SV in 78 IP. Prior to 2023, he had accumulated a lifetime 4.61 ERA and 1.56 WHIP in 219 IP. What was behind the breakout?

Year	IP	ERA/xERA	BB%/K%	xBB%	SwK	GB/LD/FB	H%/S%	HR/F	Vel	BPX	vR
2020	21	1.31/3.53	12%/27%	12%	14%	58/18/24	24%/90%	8%	96.5	112	.457
2021	54	5.17/4.02	15%/28%	11%	16%	51/23/26	34%/68%	17%	96.8	80	.777
2022	63	4.31/3.57	16%/31%	9%	16%	46/28/26	37%/74%	13%	96.9	86	.690
2023	78	2.31/2.68	8%/34%	5%	18%	51/22/27	30%/77%	6%	96.9	191	.499

Improved skills:

• Scott’s 2022 xBB% foreshadowed his 2023 BB% improvement. He pounded the strike zone even more in 2023 and xBB% indicates further BB% upside.
• His K% leaped to the 98th percentile in 2023, backed by a superb SwK%. He also boasted 90th percentile velocity.
• After some slippage in 2022, his GB% rebounded. That helped him work out of jams and keep the ball in the yard.
• Though it was a small sample, he made significant strides vR, especially in terms of BB% (BB% vR pre-2023/2023: 13% BB%/6% BB%).

Scott has essentially been a two-pitch pitcher for his entire career. He tweaked the usage rates of his fastball/slider combo in 2023, boosting four-seamer usage from 38% to 47% at the expense of the slider and it resulted in a SwK% uptick on both offerings (four-seamer SwK% up from 11% to 14%; slider SwK% up from 18% to 21%). Even if the 29-year-old gives back a little of those BB% gains, he’s a good option at his current 125 ADP.

 

Adames suffers disappointing 2023 … Willy Adames (SS, MIL) fell short of expectations in 2023. After earning $18 R$ in 2021 and $22 R$ in 2022, he could only muster an $11 R$ campaign in 2023. Is there reason to believe in a rebound?

Year	PA	HR/xHR	BA/xBA	bb%/ct%	GB/LD/FB	h%	HctX	PX/xPX	Brl%	SB/Spd
2019	584	20/22	.254/.246	8/71	47/23/30	32	104	94/91	8%	4/105
2020	205	8/7	.259/.240	10/60	43/25/32	39	90	165/111	10%	2/122
2021	555	25/24	.262/.248	10/69	37/23/41	33	106	142/131	11%	5/105
2022	617	31/32	.238/.248	8/71	34/20/46	28	108	149/170	13%	8/89
2023	636	24/27	.217/.236	11/70	36/19/45	26	101	120/133	12%	5/82
2H23	321	12/14	.231/.245	12/70	35/19/46	28	111	134/133	12%	1/104

Yes:

• A concussion shelved him for a spell in May/June and June happened to be his worst month of the season. He bounced back with a 2H that looked much more like his typical level of performance.
• Overall, he posted a career-best bb% and near-30 HR power (per xHR) while a low h% dragged down his BA. Notice his xBA has been pretty steady in recent years.
• Given his Statcast measured 55th percentile sprint speed and lifetime 63% SB% in 48 SB attempts, it would be wise not to count on more than around 5 SB. 

Adames was a mild disappointment in 2023, but it’s fair to assume the concussion he suffered in May played a part in that, along with a touch of bad luck. The skills he displayed in the 2H tell us that a return to a .240-ish BA with 25+ HR should be well within reach in 2024. That makes the 28-year-old a strong choice near his current 184 ADP.

 

Can Cabrera take the next step? … There was a lot of breakout hype surrounding Edward Cabrera (RHP, MIA) heading into 2023, but the results didn't follow. He posted a 4.24 ERA in 100 IP around a monthlong midseason IL stint (shoulder impingement) and a brief demotion to Triple-A. How are the underlying skills?

Year	IP	ERA/xERA	BB%/K%	xBB%	SwK	GB/LD/FB	H%/S%	HR/F	Vel	BPX
2019^	40	3.78/4.37	9%/23%	N/A	N/A	N/A	27%/78%	N/A	N/A	67
2020
2021*	82	4.50/4.56	13%/28%	11%	13%	42/25/33	30%/73%	27%	96.7	81
2022*	108	3.08/2.44	11%/27%	9%	14%	45/16/38	23%/75%	15%	96.0	110
2023*	129	3.84/3.74	15%/27%	11%	13%	54/13/32	28%/75%	14%	96.2	92

*Includes MLEs
 

It’s a mixed bag: 

• Of all MLB pitchers who logged at least 90 IP in 2023, only Michael Kopech had a worse BB% and it was by an eyelash (15.4% to 15.2%). Cabrera’s xBB% gives hope he can get his BB% closer to MLB average and deliver a more palatable WHIP.
• His K% ranked in the 77th percentile, according to Statcast, and was backed by SwK.
• His velocity ranked in the 86th percentile.
• The jump in GB% was great to see, as it should help him work out of jams and keep the ball in the yard. But how much of that GB% spike will stick? Our guess is he’ll give back a portion of those gains.
• Take a look at the IP column. The 2023 IP total was a career high and only the second time he has exceeded 100 IP as a professional. 

Cabrera tweaked his pitch mix in 2023, curtailing usage of his slider and sinker by a smidge, leaving him with 31%/27%/23% blend of change-up, four-seam fastball, and curve (10% sinker; 8% slider). The change-up, which comes in at 92.9 mph, garnered an impressive 19% SwK% and 72% GB% in 2023. The soon-to-be 26-year-old has good raw stuff, but the lack of command and “D” health grade in the 2024 Baseball Forecaster can't be ignored. Having said that, the cost to acquire his services (317 ADP) is low enough to justify a roll of the dice.

 

Can Garcia unlock another level? … Luis García (2B, WAS) made his MLB debut in August 2020 as a 20-year-old highly regarded prospect. His offensive output has been a bit of a disappointment thus far, but 2023 was his best season yet, as he batted .266 with 9 HR and 9 SB in 482 PA. Is there reason for optimism?

Year	PA	HR/xHR	BA/xBA	bb%/ct%	GB/LD/FB	h%	HctX	PX/xPX	QBaB	SB/Spd
2020	139	2/3	.276/.259	4/78	61/23/16	34	82	55/41	FFf	1/87
2021*	401	17/5	.257/.288	6/81	56/20/24	28	105	109/68	CFd	1/92
2022*	574	13/12	.272/.264	4/77	51/22/27	33	103	93/112	CFc	5/99
2023*	585	10/12	.259/.273	6/86	53/19/28	29	107	63/85	CFd	10/104
2H23*	267	5/3	.239/.267	6/85	48/20/33	26	87	67/68	CDf	6/103

*Includes MLEs
 

Yes, but patience will be required:

• Garcia’s ct% took a huge leap forward in 2023, backed by a reduction in SwK% from 13.5% in 2022 to 7.6% in 2023. 
• He was also more selective at the plate, reducing his Chase% from 41% in 2022 to 31% in 2023 (MLB average: 29%).
• The problem has been merely average exit velocity and a propensity to beat the ball into the ground, as seen in QBaB. That limits his HR upside.
• Given his Spd, Statcast measured 47th percentile sprint speed, and SB% (70% in 2023), we wouldn’t count on more than 8-12 SB.

After slashing .259/.293/.362 with 6 HR through 407 PA in 2023, Garcia was sent to Triple-A on August 2. He returned on September 8 and slashed .304/.360/.507 with 3 HR in 75 PA over the rest of the season. It’s also worth noting that his average launch angle increased a bit in the second half, so maybe he’s in the process of making an adjustment? Though he hasn’t yet lived up to lofty expectations, we must keep in mind that prospect growth isn’t always linear and Garcia won’t turn 24 until May. There’s some sneaky profit potential here at his 401 ADP. 

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