(*) FACTS/FLUKES: Kipnis, B. Miller, Quintana, An. Sanchez, Britton

Kipnis fading...When Facts/Flukes columnist Dave Adler looked at Jason Kipnis (2B, CLE) last July, he pointed out that Kipnis had changed his approach, trading strikeouts and power for contact and BA. He also noted that Kipnis was running less often and might not be a 30-SB threat going forward. Is there any hope of Kipnis returning to 2013 levels?  

Year    AB  HR/SB   BA  xBA  HctX  h%   PX  xPX  Spd  SB%  ct%   Eye   LD  OPS
====   ===  =====  ===  ===  ====  ==  ===  ===  ===  ===  ===  ====  ===  ===
2011   136    7/5  272  289   103  32  166  126   89  93%   75  0.32  21%  841
2012   591  14/31  257  259    97  29   76   91  105  82%   82  0.61  23%  714
2013   564  17/30  284  265   109  35  125  128   99  81%   75  0.53  25%  818
2014   500   6/22  240  249    92  29   72   84   95  88%   80  0.50  23%  640
2015   565   9/12  303  285   107  36  103   97  120  60%   81  0.53  27%  823
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
15-1H  320   6/10  341  307   110  39  112   89  122  67%   84  0.75  29%  925
15-2H  245    3/2  253  256   102  32   92  109  111  40%   78  0.33  24%  687

We are unlikely to see concurrent HR/SB totals approaching 2013, but he should remain a valuable BA asset with some power & speed.   

• His Spd is still intact and actually better than ever in 2015.  Formerly pristine SB% fell sharply in the 1H before the bottom dropped out in the 2H.
• 2013's power spike appears to have been an outlier given the slightly below league average xPX levels posted in three of the last four seasons. Any 15-1H PX optimism is nullified by the corresponding xPX.
• Consistently good LD% reached new heights in 2015 and, when considered in conjunction with HctX & Spd, give credence to his improved h%. BA/xBA are never too far apart and almost converge over the larger sample of Kipnis' MLB career (.272 BA/.270 xBA). 
• Volatile OPS has much to do with h% fluctuations that may be the result of things beyond Kipnis' control. Consistent Eye, LD%, Spd, and HctX should provide a more stable h% & OPS year-to-year.  

Kipnis hit the DL in early August with a sore left shoulder that likely contributed to his subpar 15-2H. Though Kipnis is unlikely to return to the near-$30 level of 2013, he maintains a stable set of skills that should continue to provide double-digit HR and SB totals along with a good BA.

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Miller flying under the radar...Traded by the Mariners to the Rays this offseason, Bradley Miller (SS/OF, TAM) begins the 2016 season as the presumptive regular SS in Tampa Bay. The former 2nd round pick has continued to flash the same intriguing power/speed skills in the majors that he did in the minors and as an amateur. What should we expect from Miller in his upcoming age 26 season?  

Year    AB  HR/SB   BA  xBA  bb%  ct%   Eye  HH%  GB/LD/FB   PX  hr/f  SB%  Spd  SBO%
=====  ===  =====  ===  ===  ===  ===  ====  ===  ========  ===  ====  ===  ===  ====
2012*  147    3/4  264  ---   12   79  0.67  ---  --------   82  ----  76%  115    9%
2013+  563  17/10  269  264    8   81  0.46  30%  46/22/32   97   10%  56%  137   11%
2014   367  10/ 4  221  236    8   74  0.36  31%  42/19/39  105   10%  67%  124    7%
2015   438  11/13  258  254   10   77  0.47  30%  48/20/31   97   10%  76%  113   14%
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MLB career splits:
vLHP   305    2/3  226  ---    6   75  0.24  24%   50/18/32  45    3%  43%  ---  ----
vRHP   806  27/19  256  ---   10   79  0.51  33%   44/21/35 111   12%  79%  ---  ----
* MLEs
+ inc MLEs

There's a lot to like here, but ineptitude vs LHP governs his potential ceiling:  

• League average PX and above average Spd make Miller a legit double-digit HR/SB threat at SS. Solid plate discipline, sufficient hard contact, and satisfactory batted ball profile should keep BA from becoming a drag.    
• 2015 SB% rose to just beyond the break-even point and likely allowed Miller greater freedom on the base paths as SBO% doubled. Increased patience drove bb% into the double digits and should help sustain increased SBO%.  
• Career results and skills vs LHP plummet across the board—and 2015 was no different. Currently, he's a liability when facing LHP and a potential strong-side platoon partner with teammate Tim Beckham (.733 OPSvL).  

Miller has been mentioned as a likely candidate for the 2016 leadoff role in Tampa Bay, a development that could be a boon for his SB totals if consummated. His legs are one of the several paths to a $20 season mentioned in the 2016 Baseball Forecaster and the ADPs indicate that he can be acquired for much less. With multi-positional eligibility and upside beyond our projection, Miller makes for an attractive, potentially profitable 2016 investment. 

 

Strong 2H a harbinger for Quintana?...When we last had a look under the hood at José Quintana (LHP, CHW) in July 2015, we indicated potential for ERA, Ctl, and Dom improvement over the balance of the season. On cue, Quintana posted a 2.94 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, and 127 BPV during the 2nd half of 2015.  Now that we've finished tooting our own horn, should his strong finish move him up our 2016 draft boards?   

Year    IP   ERA  xERA  S%  GB/LD  Ctl  Dom  Cmd  FpK  Ball%  SwK  hr/9  BPV  DOM/DIS
====   ===  ====  ====  ==  =====  ===  ===  ===  ===  =====  ===  ====  ===  =======
2012   136  3.76  4.34  75  47/22  2.8  5.3  1.9   61   38%     8   0.9   46  32%/32%
2013   200  3.51  3.85  75  43/20  2.5  7.4  2.9   66   37%     9   1.0   86  55%/12%
2014   200  3.32  3.51  73  45/22  2.3  8.0  3.4   66   36%     9   0.4  104  66%/ 6%
2015   206  3.36  3.60  75  47/23  1.9  7.7  4.0   69   35%     9   0.7  112  66%/ 6%
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
15-1H   99  3.81  3.89  73  44/23  2.4  7.6  3.2   68   35%    10   0.7   96  56%/ 6%
15-2H  107  2.94  3.34  77  50/23  1.5  7.8  5.2   69   35%     9   0.7  127  75%/ 6%

While probably not an augury of sub-3.00 ERAs to come, there is room for potential improvement at the margins: 

• Improved FpK and Ball% indicate that sub-2.0 Ctl could stick in 2016. This has also pushed Cmd to 4.0, a level typically achieved by the best SP in the game.   
• His 2H GB% spike comes via pitch-mix change; Quintana decreased 4-seam FB use by 15% and increased use of sinking fastball and curveball by roughly the same amount. Both his fastball and curveball induce groundballs at a rate of 50% or more.
• Quintana's hr/9 has been better than average the last two years, and the additional GBs may help mute regression. But the greater positive effect could be on S%, as groundballs provide more double play opportunities with runners on base. This may explain the 2nd half S% uptick. 
• SwK and Dom have remained largely static from 2013-2015, but if Quintana continues to increase use of his best pitch (curveball use, 2013-15: 20%/25%/31%) and it continues to induce more whiffs (SwK, 2013-15: 12%/12%/14%) his Dom could inch up into the low 8.0 range.     

Though his stuff is not overpowering and he doesn't have much more room for growth, Quintana is a consistently good SP who often flies under the radar. Recent PQS-DOM%/DIS% figures paint a very accurate picture of who he is, and 2H DOM% also illustrates well the smidge of remaining projection. As one of only seven SP with AAA reliability and a 100+ BPV, Quintana should not be overlooked as you plan for your 2016 drafts and auctions.  

 

For Sanchez, it looks worse than it really is...Just about anyone who rostered Aníbal Sánchez (RHP, DET) in 2015 feels shame, regret, and a determination not to make the same mistake twice. After posting a 5.00+ ERA in each of the season's first two months, Sanchez drew us back with a 2.63 ERA in June, before resuming his championship-inhibiting ways in July/August. His season finally (and mercifully) concluded when he was placed on the DL with a rotator cuff strain on August 20. Does this signal the end of fantasy relevance for Aníbal Sánchez?  

Year    IP   ERA  xERA   Dom  Ctl  Cmd  SwK  Ball%   Vel  GB/LD/FB  hr/f  H%/S%  BPV
====   ===  ====  ====  ====  ===  ===  ===  =====  ====  ========  ====  =====  === 
2011   196  3.67  3.38   9.3  2.9  3.2   12   35%   91.7  44/20/36   10%  32/74  109
2012   196  3.86  3.7    7.7  2.2  3.5   10   34%   91.8  46/21/32   11%  32/72  103
2013   182  2.57  3.08  10.0  2.7  3.7   13   36%   93.0  45/22/33    6%  32/79  131
2014   126  3.43  3.58   7.3  2.1  3.4   10   35%   92.1  46/19/35    3%  29/67   97
2015   157  4.99  4.11   7.9  2.8  2.8   10   37%   91.9  40/21/39   16%  29/66   85
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
15-1H  112  4.65  3.85   8.0  2.6  3.1   10   36%   91.9  41/21/38   15%  27/64   94
15-2H   45  5.84  4.75   7.7  3.4  2.2    9   38%   91.8  37/22/42   18%  33/70   60

With good health, a return to 2012-14 skill level is possible, but there's more risk now: 

• Ugly 4.65 ERA in the 1H was largely the result of an unfortunate 15% hr/f. BPV and xERA indicate that Sanchez' skills were still intact to that point.  
• 2H skills and results can at least be partially attributed to the cranky shoulder that eventually ended his season prematurely. 
• Consistent Vel and SwK raise no warning flags, and are sufficient enough for Sanchez to maintain his typical ~8.0 Dom level. The combination of rising Ball%, FB%, and hr/f in 1H to 2H is a cause for concern and may keep Sanchez from bouncing all the way back.  

Sanchez' two-year run of single digit hr/f rates in 2013-2014 were bound regress at some point. His 3-year hr/f average from 2013-15 of 9% is the same as his career rate, so perhaps the optimist would say 2015's 16% hr/f was merely statistical normalization. It does appear that some of 2015's poor performance can be blamed on injury and since there's little indication of diminished velocity or stuff, the 32-year-old Sanchez could end 2016 with a line that looks very similar to the one he posted in 2014. However, it would be wise to keep the 2016 Baseball Forecaster's "5.00 ERA, more DL time" downside in mind and invest modestly, if at all.  

 

Britton is an elite closer...When the Orioles decided to move Zach Britton (LHP, BAL) to the bullpen prior to the 2014 season, they asked him to ditch all of his secondary pitches and focus on improving the command of his sinker. Britton then went out and limited opposing hitters to a .500 oOPS in 2014, and hurled his sinker 91% of the time. He then worked to improve his breaking ball, and his SwK rate on the pitch increased from 18% to 31%, clearly the driving force behind the additional 3.5 strikeouts per nine that he added in 2015. What could Britton be working on for 2016—and could he possibly get any better? 

Year   SV   ERA  xERA  S%  GB   Dom  Ctl  Cmd  FpK  Ball%  SwK   Vel  hr/9  BPV
====   ==  ====  ====  ==  ==  ====  ===  ===  ===  =====  ===  ====  ====  ===
2011    0  4.61  4.20  68  53   5.7  3.6  1.6   53   40%     7  92.1   0.7   35
2012    0  5.07  4.01  68  61   7.9  4.8  1.7   51   42%    10  92.0   0.9   52
2013    0  4.95  4.76  72  58   4.1  3.8  1.1   54   40%     7  91.6   0.9    6
2014   37  1.65  2.44  85  75   7.3  2.7  2.7   55   36%    13  95.1   0.5  111
2015   36  1.92  1.75  82  79  10.8  1.9  5.6   64   31%    17  95.9   0.4  200
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
15-2H  13  2.03  1.55  82  86  11.0  2.0  5.4   68   31%    19  96.6   0.6  208

Britton has already ascended higher than most expected, but may not have reached the pinnacle: 

• Pitching out of the pen has allowed Britton to really let loose and it appears his fastball velocity may not have topped out yet, approaching 97 mph in the 2nd half. GB% also spiked with move to the pen and has continued to rise, topping out at an amazing 86% in the 2nd half.
• Increased velocity and improved command must make his sinker seem like a bowling ball to opposing hitters. Extremely high S% is probably very sustainable as GBs with runners on often result in a force out or double play.   
• 2015 Ball% and 15-2H FpK are indicative of Ctl levels closer to 1.5. With a 17%+ SwK there's room for more Dom growth too.   

If he's not already the top closer in the game, Britton has certainly worked his way into the conversation. His 2015 BPIs, already lofty, somehow improved in the second half. If you're in the market for an elite closer in 2016, Britton is as good or better than the first ones off the board and can often be acquired a round or two later.  

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