(*) BATTERS: LIMA targets 2015

The Low Investment Mound Aces (LIMA) Plan is a way for you to target consistent, affordable hitters who offer both solid plate discipline and power/speed upside.

Our latest iteration of the LIMA model suggests that we should target hitters who are projected to meet many of the following thresholds:

• ct% + bb% of 90% or greater
• PX or Spd level of 100 or greater
• Regular playing time
• Projected R$ between $10 and $30

LIMA values can vary based on your league context. We encourage you to use our Custom Draft Guides to see customized LIMA values for your league.

Here are the top 2015 projected LIMA hitting targets in a 5x5 mixed league...

                                            -----------Projected 2015----------
Name                 League  Position  ADP  BB%  CT%  Eye   PX   Spd  BPV  LIMA
===================  ======  ========  ===  ===  ===  ====  ===  ===  ===  ====
Soler, Jorge             NL        RF  126   9%  76%  0.42  154  109   80    A+
Bautista, Jose           AL        RF   11  15%  82%  0.98  149   84  104    A
Encarnacion, Edwin       AL     1B/DH   12  12%  85%  0.88  150   68  104    A
Rizzo, Anthony           NL        1B   16  11%  78%  0.53  150   68   74    A
Rendon, Anthony          NL     3B/2B   13   9%  82%  0.56  116  108   35    A
Puig, Yasiel             NL        CF   31  10%  77%  0.47  134  131   76    A
Dickerson, Corey         NL        LF   47   7%  79%  0.34  151  129   91    A
Reyes, Jose              AL        SS   51   7%  89%  0.65   78  126   71    A
Pujols, Albert           AL     1B/DH   53   8%  88%  0.74  117   65   83    A
Cespedes, Yoenis         AL     LF/DH   65   6%  79%  0.33  125  130   71    A
Dozier, Brian            AL        2B   67  10%  79%  0.53  123  110   70    A
Zimmerman, Ryan          NL        3B  119   9%  82%  0.57  128   94   79    A
Ortiz, David             AL        DH   95  12%  81%  0.73  150   62   89    A
Harrison, Josh           NL     OF/3B   93   4%  85%  0.29  110  118   74    A
Arenado, Nolan           NL        3B   57   5%  86%  0.39  121   95   83    A
Gardner, Brett           AL        LF  152  10%  77%  0.47  100  141   52    A
Murphy, Daniel           NL        2B  158   5%  86%  0.39   83   92   49    A
Lucroy, Jonathan         NL         C   67   9%  86%  0.69  108   96   80    A
Pedroia, Dustin          AL        2B  100   9%  87%  0.76   78  106   64    A
Harper, Bryce            NL        CF   32  10%  75%  0.45  124  113   55    A
Aybar, Erick             AL        SS  203   5%  89%  0.47   64  104   50    A
Machado, Manny           AL        3B  149   5%  80%  0.28  115  118   61    A
Santana, Carlos          AL  1B/3B/DH   76  16%  78%  0.89  127   72   71    A
Walker, Neil             NL        2B  130   9%  82%  0.52  114   86   63    A
Davis, Khris             NL        LF  204   8%  75%  0.32  158   83   66    A
Molina, Yadier           NL         C  130   6%  88%  0.56   83   64   51    A
Utley, Chase             NL        2B  221   9%  85%  0.69   90  102   64    A
Crisp, Coco              AL        CF  265  11%  86%  0.89   82  111   67    A
Jennings, Desmond        AL        CF  238   9%  78%  0.42  102  135   52    A
Prado, Martin            NL     3B/2B  204   6%  87%  0.48   85  121   67    A
Rollins, Jimmy           NL        SS  163   9%  83%  0.59   87  104   53    A
Infante, Omar            AL        2B  335   5%  88%  0.44   73  114   57    A
Hill, Aaron              NL        2B  292   7%  84%  0.44   96   90   54    A
Granderson, Curtis       AL        RF  252  11%  72%  0.46  124  107   45    A
Lowrie, Jed              AL        3B  313   9%  83%  0.55  102  101   63    A
Simmons, Andrelton       NL        SS  286   6%  89%  0.63   68  122   63    A

Let's take a closer look at a bunch of intriguing LIMA targets with current ADPs of 100+, some of whom just missed being included in the above data table. 

AMERICAN LEAGUE

Brett Gardner (LF, NYY) seemingly morphed into a power threat in 2014, nearly posting a 20/20 season after never reaching double-digits in HR in any prior season. It wasn't a product of Yankee Stadium either. He had more HR on the road (9) than at home (8). The key was nearly doubling his HR/F from 6% to 11%. But it's a mark we can't expect him to sustain, given that his batted ball distances in 2013 and 2014 were nearly identical. However, what he gives back in HR should be offset by a return to 30+ SB; he was on pace for that level of steals before an abdominal issue limited his chances in the second half.

Desmond Jennings (CF, TAM) makes for an excellent LIMA target due to his solid plate control and nice mix of power and speed. Like Gardner, he's someone you want to target more for speed than power. Jennings was on pace for a 25-SB season before a knee issue plagued him late in the year. With a GB% on a two-year increase and about to go over 50%, 30 SB is more likely than 10 HR.

Brandon Moss (1B/LF, CLE) has a lot of things going for him headed into the 2015 season. One, he'll qualify at both 1B and OF in most leagues. Two, his bb% has risen during the past two seasons, growth that could help him smooth out the streakiness that has plagued him in the past. If he has a quick recovery from hip surgery, this is a better source of power than you might realize.

Mike Moustakas (3B, KC) is a premium breakout candidate after some of his post-season heroics. Truth be told, he's a legit breakout candidate because he established career-best marks in bb%, HctX, and xPX in '14. A tiny 22% h% kept some of those gains hidden. This is a good place to speculate on an age-26 breakout.

Marcus Semien (3B/2B, OAK) enters 2015 with some intriguing upside. He flashed a 110 PX and 143 Spd with CHW in 2014, his contact rate soared from 65% in the first half to 80% in the second half, and he made those gains while markedly increasing his power skills. He wasn't able to use his speed skills due to a tiny 5% SBO%. He'll qualify at both 3B and 2B in most leagues and has a pretty clear path to playing time in the OAK infield. Invest.

Dayan Viciedo (RF, FA) is looking for a home after being designated for assignment by CHW in the off-season. While his '14 stats weren't great (.231-21-58), his flyball rate has increased over three straight seasons and his 119 xPX was the second-highest of his career. Furthermore, he's still just 26 years old and has some of the best raw power skills in the game. There's a lot of profit potential here now since you'll probably be able to get him for close to nothing.

NATIONAL LEAGUE

Norichika Aoki (RF, SF) will be viewed as a fourth of fifth OF in some leagues when owners notice his yearly SB trend: 30, 20, 17. Don't follow suit. A groin issue led to the '14 portion of that dip. With a 130+ Spd in three consecutive seasons, excellent plate control, and a rock-solid .350 OBP, it's pretty safe to use a .290 BA and 25 SB as your baseline.

Matt Carpenter (3B, STL) has the ingredients of an intriguing LIMA target given his excellent pitch recognition and historically above-average power and speed skills. His dip in value from '13 to '14 was due to a decline in h% from 36% to 32%, as well as a steep drop in power. However, he was able to sustain a high level of hard contact, so we can't rule out a return to double-digit HR. There's some hidden BA and HR profit here.

Khris Davis (LF, MIL) wore down late in '14 after a 14-HR first half. Digging deeper, he actually was at his best in August: 10% bb%, 84% ct%, 0.73 Eye. In aggregate, his ct% increased from 74% in the 1H to 78% in the 2H, and he posted an elite 150+ xPX in four of six months. It's a skill set that could drive him towards a 30-HR season in 2015.

Juan Lagares (CF, NYM) quietly saw his contact rate increase from 74% to 82% between the 1H and 2H of '14, and a more friendly green light in the 2H helped him produce double-digit SB that half. If those contact gains stick, 20 SB will be within reach.

Daniel Murphy (2B, NYM) does not put up any stats that wow you, but middle infielders that are locks to post .280-BA, 10-HR and 10-SB seasons are worth a pretty penny in today's pitching-heavy landscape. He's a legit $20 investment and an excellent LIMA target.

David Peralta (RF, ARI) is another young bat with an intriguing collection of tools: above-average HctX, good contact ability, and very good wheels. If he can add some loft to his swing, he has the ability to post a 15-HR, 30-SB season. A $10 investment could net you $10 of profit.

Andrelton Simmons (SS, ATL) oozes physical tools, but nagging injuries drove the big power dip that he experienced in '14. When healthy, he still has a 20+ HR ceiling, and a 125+ Spd in three consecutive seasons gives hope that he can develop into a double-digit SB guy if given more of a green light.

 

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