(*) MINORS: A-ball Fact/Fluke—HR

We're soon into the teeth of fantasy trade season. And with that, keeper and dynasty league rebuilders will be looking for prospects as currency in any deal. But outside of resources such as the HQ100, where do people look to find the pop-up prospects? League leaderboards, of course. 

The caveat, as anyone who has tried to project prospects knows, is that especially the further away from the majors one gets, the more difficult it can be to determine the future impact players from the organizational guys. But in savvy leagues, A-ball is often where one needs to identify a future Maikel Franco or Noah Syndergaard. 

So starting this week, we will take a page from our popular Fact/Fluke concept and take a tour of the statistical leaderboards in the lower minors—both Low-A (two leagues) and High-A (three leagues). Taking one stat per week, we'll list the current leaderboard in each league and provide a snapshot via background and scouting information as to whether these prospects could provide future value in a fantasy format. We'll attempt to answer, in a broad stroke, whether these individual performances are legit or suspect.

With most affiliates having played 40+ games thus far, it is enough time to warrant this deeper dive. This week, we will start with the HR leaderboards. 

 

LOW-A

MIDWEST LEAGUE
1. Casey Gillaspie (1B, TAM) - 7
2. Duanel Jones (1B, SD) - 7
3. Jace Conrad (2B, TAM) - 6
4. Jacob Nottingham (C, HOU) - 6
5. Trey Vavra (1B, MIN) - 6

Gillaspie is the only big name among the HR leaders in the Midwest League. He was the Rays first round pick in 2014 and he is a bat-only prospect with significant power from both sides of the plate. Not all is right in the world for the 22-year-old, however, as he's only hitting .222 in 126 AB. He should continue to contend for the HR crown and could eventually work his way to High-A if he heats up with the bat. Jones is in his second year in Low-A, but his first year was way back in 2012. His once-promising career was stuck in neutral when he struggled in High-A for two seasons in 2013 and 2014. The 22-year-old is enjoying his best campaign to date, but power is his only playable tool. He swings and misses far too often and he lacks any other secondary skill. Other than power, the only other thing going for him is his age.

He was a 33rd-round selection in 2014, but Vavra has far exceeded expectations with a hot start to the season. He is a true sleeper, but he likely won't grow into 20+ HR power in the upper minors. He's more of a natural hitter who knows the strike zone and uses a level swing path to make hard contact. He's second in the league in BA, hitting .353/.412/.566 on the season. The 23-year-old is poised to make the jump to High-A very soon. The Rays have been quite pleased with Conrad, a 22-year-old infielder who is similar to Vavra in that he's not a top-notch power hitter. He makes easy contact from the left side, but is a fringe propsect at present.

 

SOUTH ATLANTIC LEAGUE
1. Ryan O'Hearn (1B, KC) - 8
2. Austin Smith (1B, MIA) - 8
3. Tripp Martin (3B, TEX) - 7
4. Jose Trevino (C, TEX) - 6
5. Rhys Hoskins (1B, PHI) - 5

O'Hearn was the MVP of the rookie-level Pioneer League in 2014 after the Royals selected him in the 8th round of the draft. He has average bat speed and is another bat-only prospect, but his pull-side pop is impressive. His free-swinging approach and inability to make consistent contact may lead to a low BA down the line, but the power is good enough at any level. The Rangers moved Trevino from the infield to behind the plate and he has average power at best. He has a tendency to get overly aggressive with the bat and his long swing can be exploited. 

Hoskins has the potential to turn himself into a legitimate prospect if he continues to hit. He's batting .319/.413/.529 while showing patience at the plate. He has a large frame and natural hitting instincts with as much raw power as any in the Phillies system. The 22-year-old was a 5th round pick in 2014 and he could see a promotion in the near future. Smith and Martin were both late round picks in 2014 and likely will be minor league filler throughout their careers. Both are low BA hitters with limited defensive abilities.
 

HIGH-A

FLORIDA STATE LEAGUE
1. Clint Coulter (OF, MIL) - 9
2. Phillip Ervin (OF, CIN) - 8
3. Victor Roache (OF, MIL) - 8
4. Michael Conforto (OF, NYM) - 7
5. Matt Dean (1B, TOR) - 5

This is an impressive list, highlighted by four first-round picks (all but Dean), and all are legitimate prospects of varying degrees. Conforto (pictured above), 22, is the best prospect of the bunch and he has the highest upside as well. He has the bat speed, strength, and plate patience to potentially hit 25+ HR at his peak. But that isn't the only impressive tool in his arsenal. He's a natural hitter who can use the entire field and his pitch recognition allows him to make consistent, hard contact. The Brewers drafted Coulter as a catcher in 2012 and moved him to the outfield this past offseason. He crushed 22 HR in the Low-A Midwest League in 2014 and he's well on his way to matching or exceeding that total this season. The 21-year-old still strikes out a bunch, but he's making more consistent contact in 2015. 

The Reds selected Ervin in the first round in 2013, but he disappointed the organization with a horrific 2014 campaign when he hit .237 with 7 HR for Low-A Dayton. He suffered through a wrist injury during the first half of the season and never seemed to get hot. Now healthy, he's tinkered with his swing and set-up and he's already exceeded his HR output from last season. He has very good power when he makes contact and he's a candidate to break out, but he's also only hitting .260 in 150 AB. Roache is in his second season at this level and he continues to showcase his pure, plus all-fields power. The problem continues to be his inability to put bat to ball. He hit 40 HR between 2013 and 2014 and he could get to 20 again this season. 

 

CAROLINA LEAGUE
1. Bradley Zimmer (OF, CLE) - 7
2. Luigi Rodriguez (OF, CLE) - 6
3. Nellie Rodriguez (OF, CLE) - 5
4. Jacob Rogers (1B, CHC) - 5
5. Billy McKinney (OF, CHC) - 4

This league's leaderboard is also full of nice prospects, though not quite as good as the Florida State League. Zimmer and McKinney would be battling for the league's top position prospect, though McKinney was recently promoted to Double-A. Zimmer has surprised with his power output thus far as he's more of a complete hitter than pure power guy. He has a line drive approach, but he's smart enough to turn on pitches and hit them over the fence. He was a first round pick in 2014 and his excellent all-around game has him on the fast track. He owns good power, but likely won't be a tremendous HR producer down the road.

Zimmer's two teammates, Luigi Rodriguez and Nellie Rodriguez, are different in virtually every phase of the game. Nellie has above average power and could be the best pop in the Indians minor league system—he led the Low-A Midwest League in HR in 2014 with 22. The rest of his game, however, is limited as he doesn't run well, strikes out too much, and struggles with the glove. Luigi has spent the last two-and-a-half seasons in High-A and he has a short, lean frame. His best attributes revolve around his speed and isn't much of a power hitter.

 

CALIFORNIA LEAGUE
1. Stewart Ijames (OF, ARI) - 10
2. A.J. Reed (1B, HOU) - 10
3. Tyler O'Neill (OF, SEA) - 9
4. Alex Burg (C, TEX) - 8
5. Daniel Palka (RF, ARI) - 7

Two sleepers entering the 2015 campaign were Reed and O'Neill. Reed signed for a seven-figure bonus as a second round pick in 2014 and he was very impressive in his pro debut, hitting 12 HR between short-season and Low-A ball. He owns legitimate plus power and could hit 30+ HR some day. He's another prospect who could ascend quickly because of his offensive prowess. The rest of the 22-year-old's game is below average to fringe-average, but the power will carry him. The Mariners are aggressively pushing O'Neill, who won't turn 20 until June. He only hit .247 with 13 HR in Low-A in 2014, but he should easily exceed the HR output this season. He is a strong, stocky hitter with excellent bat speed. He doesn't figure to hit for much of a BA or steal many bases, but his power potential is impressive. 

Palka may be in the top 5 right now, but he likely won't match his 22 HR from 2014 in Low-A. The 23-year-old left-handed hitter is having a much better season, however, with a much higher BA, better contact rate, and more stolen bases. He tied Coulter for the Midwest League HR crown in 2014, but his bat speed is merely average. He cheats on fastballs and relies more on his strength than bat speed. He's still a prospect, but may not profile as an every day player. Ijames and Burg are both non-prospects. Ijames, 26, is in his first full season in organized ball. He signed with the Diamondbacks after 2 years in independent ball. Burg is in his third organization and is more organizational filler at this point. 

 

Next week: Pitcher strikeouts.

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