SPECULATOR: Diving into pitch mix changes
Feb 8 2023
Regression is our game's most powerful force.
Sage advice and a foundational pillar of our fanalytic toolbox, but the Speculator thrives on bending those rules. As we search for new ways to dissect 2022 returns, we'll use pitch-level data to identify starters who changed their approach by switching up their pitch mix. The idea is that with a new arsenal, they're a different pitcher than they were before, and more likely to repeat 2022's success than most might think.
We whipped up a "Change Score" metric in this space a couple years ago to help quantify a pitcher's overall change in pitch mix. As a quick refresher, Change Score is the total difference in pitch usage across a pitcher's entire arsenal. For example, if someone throws his...
Almost!
You’re just a few clicks away from accessing this feature and hundreds more throughout the year that have a singular goal in mind: Winning your league. Subscribe to BaseballHQ.com here!
Already a subscriber? Sign in here
More From Speculator
Our annual "draft skills, not roles" using projected skills and year-to-date playing time.
Apr 22 2026 3:05am
Apr 22 2026 3:05am
With most pitchers 3-4 starts in, we dive into the sub-indicators to see who's rising and falling.
Apr 15 2026 3:06am
Apr 15 2026 3:06am
Using our Quality of Batted Ball (QBaB) metric to make some speculative hitter snap judgments.
Apr 8 2026 3:06am
Apr 8 2026 3:06am
Baseball is back, and it's time to overreact... because what else are we supposed to do?
Apr 1 2026 3:08am
Apr 1 2026 3:08am
Our Opening Day Eve tradition speculating on the top category producers who went late in drafts.
Mar 25 2026 3:07am
Mar 25 2026 3:07am
