RESEARCH: A Spring Training Stat that Matters (updated!)

(see bottom of article for updated spring 2012 data...)

One of the pleasant surprises of the 2011 was Jeff Francoeur who earned a career high roto value of $27, which was driven by 20 HR and a career high 22 SB. While the 20 HR weren't completely out of line for him (he had hit 29 HR in 2006), the SB seemingly came out of nowhere, after posting a previous high of just eight SB in 2011. Even in hindsight, there's no way we could have seen this outburst coming.

Right?

Well, maybe there was a hint, if only we had known where to look.

Each spring training, we're greeted with stories about players reporting "in the best shape of their lives" or we see fringe players put up gaudy stats playing against competition destined for the low minors....

Almost!

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