RESEARCH: Changepoint Analysis Part 2: Pitching Skill

Previously, this research column examined a method for detecting qualitative changes in player performance called changepoint analysis. The previous column, available here, addressed batting performance. Today, the focus will shift to identifying changepoints in pitching performance.

As a reminder, changepoint analysis attempts to divide a player’s historical record into distinct periods, or “clusters,” based on substantial differences in either skill, opportunity, or both, and as it relates to any of the following: average skill, variability in skill, average playing time, or variability in playing time. Typically, historical evaluation of player performance relies upon the construction of artificial intervals (for example, “since the...

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