R&A: Do doubles turn into HR?

Whether it was Brady Anderson's 50 HR in 1996 or José Bautista's 54 HR in 2010, these types of breakout home run seasons make many a fantasy championship. As such, we search hard and long for these black swans, squinting as needed, for some sign that a player is poised to enjoy a power breakout the following year.

A statistic frequently used to fuel speculation is the number of doubles a player hits - there is often conjecture that a player with a lot of doubles in one year might turn them some of them into HR the next. But does this actually happen with reliable frequency?

Before we delve directly into this question, let's begin by looking at the frequency of both doubles and home runs over the ten year period, 2002-2011. The...

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