(*) ROTISSERIE: 2020 AL-LABR auction recap

Nightmares? Some people dream of being chased by Freddie Kreuger. Others feel they’re falling or are trapped under ice. Me? This nightmare involves Anthony Bass.

Yes, that Anthony Bass, the Toronto Blue Jay reliever with a total of eight major league saves over a nine-year career. In 2019, as a Mariner, Bass posted a save in the last game of the year... and cost me the title in AL-LABR. Congrats to Glenn Colton and Rick Wolf for besting me by 0.5 points!

In any case, despite the tough loss, the main takeaway was that the process used in the auction worked. Rather than reinventing the wheel, I used it again in the 2020 AL-LABR draft (full roster/price grid), which took place last weekend at First Pitch Florida.

Budget

Values discussed here are from RotoLab, using a slight Stars-and-Scrubs approach with a 70/30 split in hitting/pitching.

Looking at the AL breakdown... the middle infield comes in top-heavy with talent, while the OF goes relatively deep. Thus, a slight tweak of the offensive budget breakdown. In 2019, I departed from my usual practice of avoiding top-priced starters; it didn’t work well, as a $30 Carlos Carrasco dealt with more important health issues all year. Back to a more evenly-spread SP allotment in 2020, which also allowed pursuit of some $8-12 mid-priced targets:

C ($10) – 9/1
CO ($45) – 25/15/5
MI ($70) – 30/20/20
OF/UT ($67) – 30/15/15/5/1/1
SP ($55) – 17/17/9/9/2/1
RP ($13) – 10/1/1

As usual, this serves purely a guide, a starting point to where I wanted to go. As Mike Tyson once famously proclaimed, “everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth.” Auction dynamics, as usual, dictate whether this budget works or not. And with two new owners, flexibility remains key.

Draft prep

In addition to the budget, I wanted to get a sense of how the market treated these players. The first step: view the thoughts and analysis of as many competitors as possible. In addition to their websites, I learned a lot just by following them on Twitter, and made notes in Rotolab.

Another big help: Matthew Cederholm’s Market Pulse columns on BaseballHQ. Matt combs through the NFBC’s Average Draft Positions from recent public drafts to find the valuation differences between BaseballHQ’s projections and the public consensus. By flagging the players who might be undervalued, I could get a good sense of potential targets.

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The auction

The action usually starts fast and furious in AL-LABR, and this year remained the same—plenty of money came out in the early going. Prices on the star players were going $1-$3 over their projected values. While I don’t completely sit out this early phase of the auction, I do hang back and try not to overspend too much. Experience in this league shows that while there will be bargains later, they tend to be in the end game; if I wait too long, there won’t be enough stats to complete for the title.

Here’s how the Baseball HQ AL-LABR team looks:

Pos  Name               Team    Sal  $R   
===  ===============    ====    ==   == 
C    Chirinos, Robinson  TEX    10    7 
C    McGuire, Reese      TOR     1    4
1B   Encarnacion, Edwin  CHW    20   22
3B   Chapman, Matt       OAK    25   21
CO   Diaz, Aledmys       HOU     1    2
2B   LeMahieu, DJ        NYY    26   23
SS   Semien, Marcus      OAK    22   23
MI   Schoop, Jonathan    DET    16   18
OF   Mercado, Oscar      CLE    24   23
OF   Grichuk, Randall    TOR    13   19
OF   Hernandez, Teoscar  TOR    11   17
OF   Renfroe, Hunter     TAM    10   16
OF   Kiermaier, Kevin    TAM     7   11
UT   Maybin, Cameron     DET     2    9

SP   Ryu, Hyun-Jin       TOR    18   17
SP   Rodriguez, Eduardo  BOS    16   17
SP   Montgomery, Jordan  NYY     8    9
SP   Yarborough, Ryan    TAM    10    9
SP   Sheffield, Justus   SEA     3    2
SP   Manning, Matt       DET     2    3
SP   Dobnak, Randy       MIN     1   -2
RP   Workman, Brandon    BOS    10   18
RP   Barnes, Matt        BOS     4    4

RES  Allard, Kolby       TEX     0    0
RES  Allen, Greg         CLE     0    0
RES  Salazar, Danny      CLE     0    0
RES  Middleton, Kenyan   LAA     0    0
RES  O’Hearn, Ryan        KC     0    0
RES  Guzman, Ronald      TEX     0    0

Results

How did the budgeting go? Auction dynamics often require shifting resources to react to high costs at a given position. Despite this, I hit my positional targets, spending $11 on catchers, $46 on CO, $64 on MI, $67 on OF/UT, $58 on SP, and $14 on RP. I also found success on identifying players whose HQ value exceeded the market value, creating a $292 team on the $260 budget.

Offense: Second base in AL-only leagues looks to be a position to keep an eye on. It’s top-heavy, with a drop-off after the top 4-5 players. Rostering two of the top six 2B (LeMahieu and Schoop), I didn’t have to dip too far into the pool, and got some positional flexibility to boot (since LeMahieu qualifies at 1B, 2B, and 3B). Having a second 2B, compared to two SS at a relatively deep position, can help for future trade negotiations.

Pre-identifying the likely bargains worked particularly well in the OF, as the $67 OF/UT spent comes with $95 of projected value. That’s a significant part of an offense projected to earn 49 of a potential 60 offensive points.

Starting Pitching: With this plan, SP Gerrit Cole ($43) and Justin Verlander ($37) never appeared on the radar. The prices on my top two starters—Hyun-Jin Ryu ($18) and Eduardo Rodriguez ($16)—were fine, but their poor health track record gave me pause. So, of course, I then took Jordan Montgomery ($8).

It’s problematic in AL-only leagues (and NL as well)—there are very few top starters with A or B health grades, and they come at a high cost. Once you get past the top 2-3 expensive starters, there are D or F grades on pretty much everyone. With a low starting pitching budget, it’s not surprising that I’m projected to take 31 of 48 potential points in W, ERA, WHIP, and K’s. Strikeouts are a particularly strong need on this team.

Relievers: Since I had no intentions of paying for a top closer, the main targets became Ian Kennedy or José Leclerc. But when the bidding on Brandon Workman (projected value $18) stopped at $10, I happily rostered him, and made sure to roster his main backup, Matt Barnes, later in the draft. Middle of the pack in the category works fine.

Overview

This draft turned out well. While it lacks flashy, big names who live in the $30+ range, and high-upside rookies with 2020 uncertainty, that’s not the way I usually go. Rather, I’ll stick with the boring, consistent player in the $10-$25 range with a high chance to earn some profit.

RotoLab puts this team in a dogfight for first (good thing, since it used BHQ projections!) with Larry Schecter of Winning Fantasy Baseball. Swell, but we all know there are no prizes for winning your draft. There’s still work to do, particularly on the mound (mostly in Ks and WHIP). Time to get to work, play out the season, and bring home another title for BaseballHQ.

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