(*) NFBC: The pitching shift

In the 10 years since we started the National Fantasy Baseball Championship, we’ve seen a drastic change in the game of baseball. The Steroid Era is gone, instead replaced by power arms and dominant starting pitching. Run production is down and power numbers are down. Stolen bases are down. Strikeouts are up. ERAs and WHIP ratios are down drastically.

So how has that affected the game of fantasy baseball? Has it put a greater emphasis on starting pitching because of the dominance of top starters or does it make the few power hitters even more valuable? And, is any of this changing the early rounds of fantasy drafts?

NFBC owners have been drafting in our Draft Champions format since mid-November and already there is a bit of a trend. The top offensive producers are still the top guys to get, but we are seeing more starting pitchers going in the first three rounds than ever before. We’ve seen nine starters going consistently in the first three rounds of our 15-team drafts, and at least 15 starting pitchers being selected in the Top 65 overall.

The Dodgers’ Clayton Kershaw could be the highest pitcher selected since Pedro Martinez in 2003, as he has been a consistent Top 6 pick in early NFBC drafts. In the last four NFBC drafts, he’s gone 6th, 4th, 5th and 7th overall. Yu Darvish has also been going in the first round and he went as high as 7th overall recently. In our last four NFBC drafts, Darvish has gone number 16, 13, 18 and 20.

But it’s the next wave of starters that is interesting. Everyone is after power arms and it seems you need to use a pick in the first four rounds to get your ace,. Jose Fernandez has gone from undrafted rookie in 2013 to NL Rookie of the Year to the third pitcher selected in NFBC drafts with an ADP around 29. In our last four NFBC drafts, Fernandez has gone 22, 27, 32 and 31. Following him has been AL Cy Young winner Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg and Adam Wainwright. All three have gone in the second round at some point, with recent ADPs of 26 for Scherzer , 33 for Strasburg and 32 for Wainwright.

Then comes the fourth round with another heavy rotation of starters, likely in this order: Justin Verlander (ADP of 40), Madison Bumgarner (46), Félix Hernández (46), Cliff Lee (47), Chris Sale (48), David Price (51), Zach Greinke (60), Cole Hamels (61) and Aníbal Sánchez (63).

Fantasy owners are jumping on the top starters because they’ve seen how pitching has become more dominant through the years. Team ERAs have fallen from 4.62 in 2004 to 4.01 in 2013, with teams averaging almost a strikeout more per nine innings as the strikeout rate has gone from 16% in 2004 to almost 19% in 2013. Walk rates have actually gone down from 3.18 per 9 innings in 2004 to 2.83 per 9 innings last year, thus lowering team WHIP Ratios by 0.10. See below:

The Last Decade In Starting Pitching
Year   ERA  WHIP  K/9
====  ====  ====  ===
2004  4.62  1.40  6.2
2005  4.36  1.36  6.0
2006  4.69  1.41  6.2
2007  4.63  1.41  6.3
2008  4.44  1.39  6.5
2009  4.45  1.39  6.7
2010  4.15  1.34  6.8
2011  4.06  1.32  6.8
2012  4.19  1.32  7.1
2013  4.01  1.31  7.2

The Top 30 Starting Pitchers are even more dominant today, averaging a full run less than the league average, with 1.22 more strikeouts per nine innings. Here’s the numbers:

The Last Decade of Top 30 SP Averages
Year   ERA  WHIP  K/9
====  ====  ====  ===
2004  3.30  1.20  7.5
2005  3.18  1.19  6.7
2006  3.54  1.24  6.9
2007  3.38  1.22  7.6
2008  3.19  1.19  7.7
2009  3.10  1.18  7.9
2010  2.96  1.16  7.9
2011  2.90  1.12  7.6
2012  3.10  1.14  7.8
2013  2.92  1.11  8.4

NFBC owners aren’t shying away from the young arms, either. St. Louis’ Michael Wacha has consistently been going in the Top 80 overall, while Pittsburgh’s Gerrit Cole has gone anywhere from number 75 to 110. Shelby Miller of the Cardinals has also been going in the Top 135, while Cleveland’s Danny Salazar has been a Top 150 pick, despite only 10 starts in the majors. The top pitching prospect to get is Seattle’s Taijuan Walker, the 21-year-old right-hander who struck out 160 batters in 141 minor-league innings last year. He’s been going as low as pick 210 and as high as pick 285, but there’s real value with this strikeout pitcher in 2014.

NFBC owners thought they had real value in Japan’s Masahiro Tanaka before his Japanese club decided not to post him for MLB teams. Tanaka was consistently going between picks 105 and 175 before it became apparent that he won’t be pitching in the major leagues.

The good news for fantasy owners in 2014 is that the stats above show that overall, pitching is much better than it’s been in years. It’s not just the Top 30 pitchers who are putting up better numbers, so take our advice: Don’t over-react to the new pitching norms. It’s still very important to build a strong offensive team and owners should realize that finding power and speed numbers is tougher today than it was in 2004. Don’t get too carried away with building a strong pitching staff because there will still be great value on pitchers later on.

Runs are down and strikeouts are up, but at the end of the day it’s still the same 10 categories we’re all chasing. Even with better pitching these days, you can’t drastically change your draft strategy and chase the hottest new wave. You must get a good balance of offensive points and pitching points if you plan on winning a fantasy title in 2014. Good luck in that quest.

(Greg Ambrosius is the founder of the National Fantasy Baseball Championship, the industry’s premiere season-long fantasy baseball contest. Check out the NFBC at nfbc.stats.com and find the contest that fits your style of play. You can also follow Greg on Twitter @GregAmbrosius)

 

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