(*) MASTER NOTES: May is the Great Equalizer

May is The Great Equalizer.

This is a statement I have been making for the last few years. Too many fantasy owners are rash; jumping to quick judgments on small samples because of recency bias and because April has a special place in the life of a fantasy baseball owner. No one wants to get off to a bad start, but it happens. And far too often when it happens, an owner goes off the deep end.

The problem with this is, of course, that water seeks its own level, and baseball players with established track records will usually come around. Matt Cain (SP, SF) had a hard start, and his owners were shouting expletives from the rooftops when all they needed was excruciating patience.

Regression to the mean is a stern taskmaster, and is usually an unyielding, unforgiving mistress. The hot start of John Buck (C, NYM) had many owners out to an early lead in their leagues, but he has come back to earth in startling fashion. And Yuniesky Betancourt (1B, MIL) is hitting a cool .179 in May.

May is when those good and bad starts start to equalize, and this year was no different. As May progressed sample sizes grew, the opposition adjusted and expectations started to be met. In many cases it takes a long time to see the results in the standings, but May is almost always The Great Equalizer, and fantasy owners should take heed.

Here are some more cases:

Hitters:

Marco Scutaro (2B, SF): Scutaro got off to a very slow start, hitting .240 in April, and many owners were dropping him for the likes of Jurickson Profar (2B, TEX). But this was a bad move, as Scutaro has a long record of BA success,  He's is hitting .420 in May as of May 27, and has his season-long BA up to .324. For a player who has hit over .300 in the last two years combined, it was only a matter of time before Scutaro turned it around.

Carlos Santana (C, CLE): With the good comes the bad, and Santana has regressed badly in May. After a scintillating April in which he hit .389 with 5 HR and 13 RBI, it looked like he might be turning into the star that many predicted. But a .205 BA in May with only 8 RBI has seen his stock wane. After three years in which he hit .260, .239 and .252, this fall from grace was easily foreseen, and there is still plenty of equalizing that may continue.

José Bautista (OF, TOR): After an injury-plagued 2012 in which his home runs dropped to 27 and his BA dropped by 60 points on the heels of a wrist injury, his owners might have been worried that the injury was lingering into 2013, when he hit a mere .200 in April. He has gotten back on track in May, hitting .383 with a .500 OBP, and his BA is now up to .295. April seems like a distant memory.

Pitchers:

Rick Porcello (RHP, DET): Yes, even bad pitchers can equalize over a month. In April Porcello had an 8.84 ERA. He is bad, but he is not that bad; his April ERA came with a 47% S% and a 35% H. His xERA was 4.73, right in line with his typical performance. May brought a 4.18 ERA, but a 2.95 xERA. His DOM has jumped to 8.0 in May to boot.

Brandon McCarthy (RHP, ARI):  After a disturbing beaning by a batted ball in September, fantasy owners had questions about McCarthy coming into the year. And when he got off to a terrible start, the allure of confirmation bias and recency bias was too much to overcome for many fantasy owners. McCarthy had a 7.48 ERA and a 1.77 WHIP.

But, as is usually the case, the true story was purely about small samples and bad luck. McCarthy had a 57% S% and a 41% H% in April.  His performance was not about his beaning or any of the other explanations bandied about; it was simply a matter of luck equalizing over the month.

Jhoulys Chacín (RHP, COL):  After a 1.46 ERA in April, Chacin rose onto many radars, only to come crashing down in May. Chacin is still only 25 years old, and fantasy owners might have thought he was reaching an age 25 breakout in April, after a 22% H% and 86% S% helped him to a 3.36 xERA.

May brought Chacin a 5.87 ERA and a 4.41 xERA. One might be forgiven for thinking that May was bad luck, since he had a 34% H% and 56% S%. And they would be right. This is exactly what happens when regression to the mean hits; sometimes the pendulum of luck starts to swing in an equalizing direction and there may be no stopping it until it is done.

 

The lesson here is twofold. The first is that fantasy owners need to restrain themselves from snap judgments based on what happens in April. We preach excruciating patience, and nowhere is patience needed more than dealing with April slow starters. The flip side is that sometimes you need to sell high as soon as you can. When a player is an obvious April fluke, like John Buck, he should be dealt as early as possible.

Secondly, looking at season long stats at the end of May is often not as useful as examining the splits. A better way to analyze what a player will do going forward is to see whether and how the player’s equalization is going. Look at Carlos Santana above for example; April is in the books May has brought a big equalization and he has an established track record of batting averages in a given range. His current batting average is less telling than it appears.

More From Archives