FANALYTICS: XRD targets for 2013

"Year-to-year player performance does not inherently follow a smooth trend for any player. Rather, surges are followed by declines, and declines by surges, even as overall growth may still occur. These swings are constant and far wilder than we'd care to admit. The greater the movement in one direction, the higher the likelihood of a regression or normalization the following year. Bill James nailed this all years ago."
—Me, sometime in 2011

Two years ago, I introduced Xtreme Regression Drafting, or XRD, to try to wrap our arms around the concept of these erratic trends. The tactical fantasy game involves playing off the marketplace; XRD allows us to create a list of overvalued and undervalued players for use in whatever larger draft...

More From Archives