FANALYTICS: When good projections go bad

It is not a cop-out to say that it doesn't matter whether our projections are right or wrong. We cannot predict the future; all we can do is provide a sound process for constructing a "most likely expectation for future performance." All we can control is the process.

As such, there is a limit to how much blame we can shoulder for this year's misses. If we've captured as much information as is available, used the best methodology and analyzed the results correctly, that's about the best we can do. We simply can't control outcomes.

What we can do is analyze all the misses to see why they occurred. This is always a valuable exercise each year. It puts a proper focus on the variables that were out of our control as well as providing...

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