FANALYTICS: Riding the Long Odds

I received the following question in my USA Today online chat this week:

"Justin Smoak is suddenly smoking hot... I grabbed him in my 16 team 5x5. He'd be an 18th round keeper next year. Given he was highly touted, do you think he may be coming into his own for a step up in 2013?

I responded: "You're basing a keeper decision on a 19 ABs? Why not base it on the three sets of 19 ABs that preceded it when he batted sub-.200 each time? Or maybe his .308 BA during the week of August 12. Or his .400 BA during the week of May 27? If you are going to keep him, do it based on more than a week, half of which he spent in a great hitter's park."

Okay, my "small sample size" speech was more snark than tact, but the point remains. However,...

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