FANALYTICS: Eighth Annual Longshot Caucus
Apr 3 2014
Nobody expected Jose Fernandez to put up a Kershaw-esque season in 2013. That's because everyone came into last year with a set of preconceptions about the odds of a 20-year-old Single-A pitcher finding a role (and success!) on a horrible team. Last year at this time, Fernandez was ignored in virtually all redraft leagues.
That's where we run into trouble every year, grounding future expectations in past realities. And so, we are blindsided by the surprises. Last year becomes the starting point for this year, and everything that happens is grounded in 2013. But 2014 is not an extension of 2013. It's a new beginning.
If we look at each season as a blank slate, we immediately open up more possibilities. If we start the year completely...
Almost!
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