FANALYTICS: 2012 XRD Targets

In the Baseball Forecaster essay, "The Science of the First Round," I talked about how regression and gravity are the two strongest forces known to man. I wrote how chasing "last year’s bums" and avoiding "last year's heroes" was important in determining an appropriate list of early draft targets.

But I don’t think we’ve taken it far enough. Year-to-year player performance does not inherently follow a smooth trend for any player. Rather, surges are followed by declines, and declines by surges, even as overall growth may still occur. These swings are constant and far wilder than we’d care to admit. The greater the movement in one direction, the higher the likelihood of a regression or normalization the following year. Bill James...

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